Good pick · fair odds 1.54 · bookmaker 1.45 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.45Odds
1
Value bet: XV de Jau to win @ 2.15 – our chance 50% vs 47% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultXV de Jau to win ✗50% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.27
XV de Jau vs Paulista preview and prediction
The match
XV de Jau host Paulista in the Paulista A3 on Sunday 15 February, with kick-off at 14:00 (WAT).
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.3 for XV de Jau and 0.8 for Paulista. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: XV de Jau 50%, draw 24%, Paulista 27%.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 2.10.
Value angle: XV de Jau to win at 2.15 – 50% on our numbers against 47% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 65% chance at odds of 1.45. Predicted score: XV de Jau 1–0 Paulista. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
XV de Jau50%fair 2.02 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @2.85
Paulista27%fair 3.76 · @3.50
2.06Expected goals
1.26XV de Jau xG
0.81Paulista xG
50%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
1–113%
0–013%
0–110%
2–010%
2–18%
From our goals model: XV de Jau 1.3 – 0.8 Paulista expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
XV de Jau to win✗
50%
2.02
2.15 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.98
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.54
1.45
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.06
–
Half-time / full-time
HT XV de Jau / FT XV de Jau✗
27%
3.69
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.27
–
Form
XV de Jau
No recent results on record.
Paulista
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between XV de Jau and Paulista.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 65% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.
Who will win XV de Jau vs Paulista?
On our numbers XV de Jau have a 50% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Paulista 27%.
How many goals will there be in XV de Jau vs Paulista?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for XV de Jau vs Paulista?
Our predicted score is XV de Jau 1–0 Paulista, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is XV de Jau vs Paulista?
XV de Jau vs Paulista (Paulista A3) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Paulista A3 · Brazil
Itapirense1
Bandeirante SP2