Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes prediction & analysis
89%
Footrivo pick
Mercedes or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Mercedes to win @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercedes to win ✗62% · @1.80
Double chanceMercedes or draw ✓89% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗63% · fair 1.59
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓67% · @1.40
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗21% · fair 4.78
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Paraguayo host Mercedes in the Primera C on Monday 5 October, with kick-off at 19:00 (WAT). Deportivo Paraguayo are 12th with 32 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while Mercedes sit 5th on 47 points (in the top half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Paraguayo's last 5: DWLWD Most recently they drew with Lugano 1–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Mercedes's last 5: WWDLL Most recently they beat Puerto Nuevo 1–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 6 June 2026, finished Mercedes 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.5 for Deportivo Paraguayo and 1.5 for Mercedes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Value angle: Mercedes to win at 1.80 – 62% on our numbers against 56% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Mercedes or draw – a 89% chance at odds of 1.20, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Mercedes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Deportivo Paraguayo11%fair 8.72 · @4.75
Draw26%fair 3.80 · @2.80
Mercedes62%fair 1.61 · @1.80
1.96Expected goals
0.48Deportivo Paraguayo xG
1.49Mercedes xG
37%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–121%
0–216%
0–014%
1–110%
0–38%
1–27%
From our goals model: Deportivo Paraguayo 0.5 – 1.5 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Mercedes or draw with a 89% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Deportivo Paraguayo have a 11% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Mercedes 62%.
How many goals will there be in Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 37% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Deportivo Paraguayo 0–1 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes?
Deportivo Paraguayo vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Monday 5 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
El Porvenir1
Canuelas1
Sportivo Barracas0
Leones de Rosario2