Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓62% · fair 1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.63
Mercedes vs El Porvenir preview and prediction
The match
El Porvenir travel to face Mercedes in the Primera C on Saturday 18 July (19:00 WAT). Mercedes are 5th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while El Porvenir sit 8th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Mercedes's last 5: DWWLD Most recently they drew with Victoriano Arenas 1–1 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
El Porvenir's last 5: DDDLD Most recently they drew with Lujan 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.5 goals: 0.8 for Mercedes and 0.7 for El Porvenir. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 80% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Mercedes 39%, draw 28%, El Porvenir 33%.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 72% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Mercedes 1–0 El Porvenir. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mercedes39%fair 2.54 · @2.62
Draw28%fair 3.63 · @2.62
El Porvenir33%fair 3.03 · @2.95
1.53Expected goals
0.82Mercedes xG
0.71El Porvenir xG
38%Both score
20%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–022%
1–018%
0–115%
1–113%
2–07%
0–25%
From our goals model: Mercedes 0.8 – 0.7 El Porvenir expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mercedes to win✓
39%
2.54
2.62
Double chance
Either team to win✓
72%
1.38
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Under 1.5 goals✗
55%
1.83
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
80%
1.25
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
57%
1.76
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
29%
3.47
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.63
–
Form
Mercedes – last 6
DWWLDD
12 Jul
vs Victoriano Arenas
1–1
D
6 Jul
@ Centro Español
3–0
W
27 Jun
vs JJ Urquiza
5–0
W
14 Jun
@ Lugano
0–1
L
6 Jun
vs Deportivo Paraguayo
0–0
D
30 May
@ Puerto Nuevo
1–1
D
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
El Porvenir – last 6
DDDLDW
11 Jul
vs Lujan
0–0
D
5 Jul
@ General Lamadrid
1–1
D
27 Jun
vs Leones de Rosario
0–0
D
13 Jun
vs Atletico Atlas
0–1
L
7 Jun
@ Canuelas
0–0
D
30 May
vs Deportivo Muñiz
2–1
W
0.5Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mercedes and El Porvenir.
What is the prediction for Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
On our numbers Mercedes have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 28% and El Porvenir 33%.
How many goals will there be in Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 20% likely and both teams score 38% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Our predicted score is Mercedes 1–0 El Porvenir, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.
When is Mercedes vs El Porvenir?
Mercedes vs El Porvenir (Primera C) kicks off on Saturday 18 July 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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