Value bet: Mercedes to win @ 2.55 – our chance 43% vs 39% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMercedes to win ✗43% · @2.55
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.42
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.16
Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes preview and prediction
The match
The Primera C sees Puerto Nuevo take on Mercedes on Saturday 30 May, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT). Puerto Nuevo are 9th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Mercedes sit 5th on 47 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Puerto Nuevo's last 5: DWDDW Most recently they drew with Central Ballester 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Mercedes's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Deportivo Español 0–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Puerto Nuevo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.8 for Puerto Nuevo and 1.0 for Mercedes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Puerto Nuevo 32%, draw 25%, Mercedes 43%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Mercedes to win at 2.55 – 43% on our numbers against 39% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.42. Predicted score: Puerto Nuevo 0–1 Mercedes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Puerto Nuevo32%fair 3.15 · @2.90
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @2.75
Mercedes43%fair 2.31 · @2.55
1.85Expected goals
0.82Puerto Nuevo xG
1.03Mercedes xG
49%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–016%
1–113%
1–013%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Puerto Nuevo 0.8 – 1.0 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mercedes to win✗
43%
2.31
2.55 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.96
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.42
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
52%
1.93
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
24%
4.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
16%
6.16
–
Form
Puerto Nuevo – last 5
DWDDW
17 May
vs Central Ballester
0–0
D
6 Apr
@ Sacachispas
2–0
W
29 Mar
vs Argentino Rosario
1–1
D
23 Mar
@ Fénix
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Victoriano Arenas
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
0.2Conceded / game
20%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mercedes – last 3
LLD
18 May
@ Deportivo Español
0–1
L
8 May
@ Defensores de Cambaceres
1–2
L
5 Apr
@ Estrella Del Sur
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Puerto Nuevo and Mercedes.
What is the prediction for Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Puerto Nuevo have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mercedes 43%.
How many goals will there be in Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Puerto Nuevo 0–1 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes?
Puerto Nuevo vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Central Ballester0
Deportivo Español0
Claypole2
Central Cordoba2
El Porvenir2
Deportivo Muñiz1