Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.10 – our chance 53% vs 48% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLugano to win ✗62% · @1.65
Double chanceLugano or draw ✓87% · @1.09
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.39
Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo preview and prediction
The match
Deportivo Paraguayo travel to face Lugano in the Primera C on Saturday 30 May (18:30 WAT). Lugano are 7th with 46 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Deportivo Paraguayo sit 12th on 32 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 14 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Deportivo Paraguayo's last 4: LDLD Most recently they lost to Lujan 0–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.0 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.7 for Lugano and 0.7 for Deportivo Paraguayo. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 53%.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.10 – 53% on our numbers against 48% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 78% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lugano 1–0 Deportivo Paraguayo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lugano62%fair 1.62 · @1.65
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.20
Deportivo Paraguayo13%fair 7.63 · @5.50
2.40Expected goals
1.73Lugano xG
0.67Deportivo Paraguayo xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
2–19%
0–09%
3–08%
From our goals model: Lugano 1.7 – 0.7 Deportivo Paraguayo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lugano to win✗
62%
1.62
1.65
Double chance
Lugano or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.09
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
67%
1.48
1.42
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.20
Half-time result
Lugano ahead at half-time✗
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lugano / FT Lugano✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.39
–
Form
Lugano – last 2
LW
8 Apr
@ Sportivo Barracas
0–3
L
30 Mar
@ Centro Español
3–1
W
1.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Deportivo Paraguayo – last 4
LDLD
17 May
vs Lujan
0–2
L
20 Apr
@ Sportivo Barracas
0–0
D
5 Apr
@ Argentino Rosario
0–2
L
15 Mar
@ Berazategui
0–0
D
0.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lugano and Deportivo Paraguayo.
What is the prediction for Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo?
On our numbers Lugano have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Deportivo Paraguayo 13%.
How many goals will there be in Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo?
Our predicted score is Lugano 1–0 Deportivo Paraguayo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo?
Lugano vs Deportivo Paraguayo (Primera C) kicks off on Saturday 30 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Central Ballester0
Deportivo Español0
Claypole2
Central Cordoba2
El Porvenir2
Deportivo Muñiz1