Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes prediction & analysis
61%
Footrivo pick
Estrella Del Sur to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.64 · bookmaker 1.77 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.77Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultEstrella Del Sur to win ✗61% · @1.77
Double chanceEstrella Del Sur or draw ✓83% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.54
Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes preview and prediction
The match
Estrella Del Sur host Mercedes in the Primera C on Sunday 5 April, with kick-off at 19:30 (WAT). Estrella Del Sur are 3rd with 48 points from 32 games (in the top four), while Mercedes sit 5th on 47 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.5 for Estrella Del Sur and 0.6 for Mercedes. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 65% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Estrella Del Sur 61%, draw 22%, Mercedes 17%.
Both teams to score: no (54%) at 1.48.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Estrella Del Sur to win – a 61% chance at odds of 1.77, above our fair price of 1.64, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Estrella Del Sur 1–0 Mercedes. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Estrella Del Sur61%fair 1.64 · @1.77
Draw22%fair 4.50 · @2.95
Mercedes17%fair 5.95 · @5.00
2.13Expected goals
1.51Estrella Del Sur xG
0.61Mercedes xG
46%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
2–014%
0–012%
1–111%
2–18%
0–17%
From our goals model: Estrella Del Sur 1.5 – 0.6 Mercedes expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Estrella Del Sur to win✗
61%
1.64
1.77 ▲
Double chance
Estrella Del Sur or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.86
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
1.60
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
65%
1.53
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Estrella Del Sur / FT Estrella Del Sur✗
36%
2.79
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.54
–
Form
Estrella Del Sur – last 1
W
22 Feb
vs Defensores de Cambaceres
2–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Mercedes
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Estrella Del Sur and Mercedes.
What is the prediction for Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes?
Our pick is Estrella Del Sur to win with a 61% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.77.
Who will win Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes?
On our numbers Estrella Del Sur have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Mercedes 17%.
How many goals will there be in Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes?
Our predicted score is Estrella Del Sur 1–0 Mercedes, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes?
Estrella Del Sur vs Mercedes (Primera C) kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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