Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina · Juan Antonio Arias StadiumLiniers vs Excursionistas prediction & analysis
Excursionistas or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.22 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Excursionistas to win @ 1.85 – our chance 58% vs 54% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Liniers 0.7 – 1.5 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Excursionistas shade it despite being away from home – 58% to win, against 19% for Liniers.
Liniers have taken 8 points from their last 6 matches (2W 2D 2L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 per game. Excursionistas have 15 points from their last 6 (5W 0D 1L), averaging 2.0 scored and 0.8 conceded. Excursionistas come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.1 goals (0.7 for Liniers, 1.5 for Excursionistas). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Most likely scores: 0–1 (17%), 0–2 (13%), 0–0 (12%).
In their last 1 meeting, Liniers have won 0, Excursionistas have won 1 and 0 ended level, with an average of 5.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Excursionistas or draw at a 81% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.22 is close to our fair price of 1.24. For a bigger price, Excursionistas to win at 1.85 is our value angle (58% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Excursionistas to win ✗ | 58% | 1.72 | 1.85 ▲ |
| Double chance | Excursionistas or draw ✗ | 81% | 1.24 | 1.22 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 51% | 1.94 | 2.05 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✗ | 63% | 1.60 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 64% | 1.55 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.20 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 47% | 2.12 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas ✗ | 34% | 2.98 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 17% | 5.74 | – |
Form
Liniers – last 6
| 26 Sep | @ Arsenal Sarandi | 0–2 | L |
| 20 Sep | vs Argentino de Merlo | 1–2 | L |
| 12 Sep | @ Talleres Remedios | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sep | vs Deportivo Laferrere | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | @ Brown DE Adrogue | 1–1 | D |
| 26 Aug | vs Deportivo Armenio | 3–1 | W |
Excursionistas – last 6
| 26 Sep | vs Real Pilar | 3–0 | W |
| 19 Sep | @ UAI Urquiza | 2–1 | W |
| 13 Sep | vs Villa Dalmine | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Sep | vs Ituzaingó | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | @ Arsenal Sarandi | 0–3 | L |
| 26 Aug | vs Argentino de Merlo | 2–0 | W |
Head to head
| 23 May 2026 | Excursionistas v Liniers | 4–1 |
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Liniers vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Excursionistas or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Liniers vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Liniers have a 19% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Excursionistas 58%.
How many goals will there be in Liniers vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
When is Liniers vs Excursionistas?
Liniers vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Juan Antonio Arias Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.