Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine prediction & analysis
67%
Footrivo pick
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.40Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultVilla Dalmine to win ✗38% · @2.70
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · fair 1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · @1.12
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.23
Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B Metropolitana sees Excursionistas take on Villa Dalmine on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Excursionistas Stadium. Excursionistas are 1st with 81 points from 42 games (top of the table), while Villa Dalmine sit 6th on 68 points (in the top half). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Excursionistas's last 5: WLWWW Most recently they beat Ituzaingó 2–1 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Villa Dalmine's last 5: LDDWW Most recently they lost to Arsenal Sarandi 0–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Excursionistas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for Excursionistas and 1.0 for Villa Dalmine. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Excursionistas 36%, draw 26%, Villa Dalmine 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 52% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 67% chance at odds of 1.40. Predicted score: Excursionistas 0–1 Villa Dalmine. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Excursionistas36%fair 2.78 · @2.70
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Villa Dalmine38%fair 2.64 · @2.70
1.99Expected goals
0.98Excursionistas xG
1.01Villa Dalmine xG
52%Both score
33%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: Excursionistas 1.0 – 1.0 Villa Dalmine expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Villa Dalmine to win✗
38%
2.64
2.70
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.94
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.69
1.57
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
67%
1.49
1.40
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
1.12
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
50%
2.00
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
22%
4.56
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.23
–
Form
Excursionistas – last 6
WLWWWL
8 Sep
vs Ituzaingó
2–1
W
29 Aug
@ Arsenal Sarandi
0–3
L
26 Aug
vs Argentino de Merlo
2–0
W
22 Aug
@ Talleres Remedios
2–1
W
15 Aug
vs Deportivo Laferrere
5–3
W
8 Aug
@ Brown DE Adrogue
0–1
L
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Villa Dalmine – last 6
LDDWWL
5 Sep
vs Arsenal Sarandi
0–1
L
30 Aug
@ Argentino de Merlo
0–0
D
25 Aug
vs Talleres Remedios
0–0
D
21 Aug
@ Deportivo Laferrere
2–0
W
15 Aug
vs Brown DE Adrogue
1–0
W
8 Aug
@ Deportivo Armenio
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
0.3Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Excursionistas and Villa Dalmine.
What is the prediction for Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
On our numbers Excursionistas have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Villa Dalmine 38%.
How many goals will there be in Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
Our predicted score is Excursionistas 0–1 Villa Dalmine, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine?
Excursionistas vs Villa Dalmine (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Excursionistas Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
