Value bet: Deportivo Merlo to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultArgentino Quilmes to win ✓43% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.55
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✓14% · fair 7.23
Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B Metropolitana sees Argentino Quilmes take on Deportivo Merlo on Sunday 13 September, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Barranca Quilmena stadium. Argentino Quilmes are 17th with 47 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Merlo sit 15th on 49 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Argentino Quilmes's last 5: LLLLW Most recently they lost to Deportivo Camioneros 0–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Deportivo Merlo's last 5: DLLDD Most recently they drew with Defensores Unidos 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 3 May 2026, finished Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Argentino Quilmes.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.2 for Argentino Quilmes and 1.0 for Deportivo Merlo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 64% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Deportivo Merlo to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 50% chance at odds of 1.55. Predicted score: Argentino Quilmes 1–0 Deportivo Merlo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Argentino Quilmes43%fair 2.33 · @2.30
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @2.60
Deportivo Merlo32%fair 3.17 · @3.50
2.15Expected goals
1.19Argentino Quilmes xG
0.96Deportivo Merlo xG
50%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
1–113%
0–012%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Argentino Quilmes 1.2 – 1.0 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.55.
Who will win Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Argentino Quilmes have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Deportivo Merlo 32%.
How many goals will there be in Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Argentino Quilmes 1–0 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo?
Argentino Quilmes vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Barranca Quilmena stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
