Primera B Metropolitana · Argentina · Municipal de Pilar-Carlos BarrazaReal Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue prediction & analysis
Under 2.5 goals
Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.42 · Won ✓
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.20 – our chance 50% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Real Pilar 1.1 – 0.9 Brown DE Adrogue expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Real Pilar hold the edge on home soil with a 46% chance of winning, against 31% for Brown DE Adrogue.
Real Pilar have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.5 per game. Brown DE Adrogue have 8 points from their last 6 (2W 2D 2L), averaging 0.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
We expect around 2.0 goals (1.1 for Real Pilar, 0.9 for Brown DE Adrogue). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 67% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (16%), 0–0 (14%), 1–1 (13%).
In their last 1 meeting, Real Pilar have won 0, Brown DE Adrogue have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.42 is close to our fair price of 1.50. For a bigger price, Both teams to score at 2.20 is our value angle (50% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Real Pilar to win ✓ | 46% | 2.20 | 2.10 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 77% | 1.31 | 1.28 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✗ | 50% | 1.98 | 2.20 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 60% | 1.68 | 1.55 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 83% | 1.21 | 1.17 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 50% | 2.00 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Real Pilar / FT Real Pilar ✓ | 24% | 4.21 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.44 | – |
Form
Real Pilar – last 6
| 22 Aug | @ Deportivo Armenio | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | vs Flandria | 0–0 | D |
| 8 Aug | @ Argentino Quilmes | 0–0 | D |
| 1 Aug | vs Defensores Unidos | 2–1 | W |
| 25 Jul | @ Comunicaciones | 2–1 | W |
| 18 Jul | vs Dock Sud | 0–1 | L |
Brown DE Adrogue – last 6
| 21 Aug | vs UAI Urquiza | 1–1 | D |
| 15 Aug | @ Villa Dalmine | 0–1 | L |
| 8 Aug | vs Excursionistas | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Jul | @ Arsenal Sarandi | 1–1 | D |
| 25 Jul | vs Argentino de Merlo | 1–0 | W |
| 18 Jul | @ Talleres Remedios | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
| 15 Apr 2026 | Brown DE Adrogue v Real Pilar | 1–1 |
Primera B Metropolitana table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Excursionistas | 42 | +36 | 81 |
| 2 |  Arsenal Sarandi | 42 | +28 | 77 |
| 3 |  Sportivo Italiano | 42 | +15 | 72 |
| 4 |  Talleres Remedios | 42 | +19 | 71 |
| 5 |  Deportivo Camioneros | 42 | +15 | 70 |
| 6 |  Villa Dalmine | 42 | +12 | 68 |
| 7 |  Real Pilar | 42 | +4 | 66 |
| 8 |  Deportivo Armenio | 42 | +3 | 63 |
| 9 |  Comunicaciones | 42 | +5 | 60 |
| 10 |  Deportivo Laferrere | 42 | -2 | 59 |
| 11 |  Villa San Carlos | 42 | -5 | 51 |
| 12 |  San Martín Burzaco | 42 | -6 | 51 |
| 13 |  Argentino de Merlo | 42 | -6 | 50 |
| 14 |  Flandria | 42 | -10 | 49 |
| 15 |  Deportivo Merlo | 42 | -15 | 49 |
| 16 |  Liniers | 42 | -7 | 48 |
| 17 |  Argentino Quilmes | 42 | -8 | 47 |
| 18 |  Dock Sud | 42 | -9 | 47 |
| 19 |  Defensores Unidos | 42 | -6 | 46 |
| 20 |  Brown DE Adrogue | 42 | -12 | 46 |
| 21 |  UAI Urquiza | 42 | -10 | 45 |
| 22 |  Ituzaingó | 42 | -41 | 17 |
More Primera B Metropolitana predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.42.
Who will win Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue?
On our numbers Real Pilar have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Brown DE Adrogue 31%.
How many goals will there be in Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 33% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
When is Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue?
Real Pilar vs Brown DE Adrogue (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Tuesday 25 August 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Municipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.