Value bet: Excursionistas to win @ 2.60 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultExcursionistas to win ✓44% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓50% · @1.53
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✓15% · fair 6.52
Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas preview and prediction
The match
Excursionistas travel to Republica de Italia Stadium in the Primera B Metropolitana on Saturday 13 June (19:30 WAT) to face Sportivo Italiano. Sportivo Italiano are 3rd with 72 points from 42 games (in the top four), while Excursionistas sit 1st on 81 points (top of the table).
Form guide
Sportivo Italiano's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat Arsenal Sarandi 3–1 away. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Excursionistas's last 5: WWDWD Most recently they beat San Martín Burzaco 2–0 at home. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Excursionistas arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.9 for Sportivo Italiano and 1.1 for Excursionistas. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sportivo Italiano 32%, draw 24%, Excursionistas 44%.
Both teams to score: no (50%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Excursionistas to win at 2.60 – 44% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 69% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Sportivo Italiano 0–1 Excursionistas. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sportivo Italiano32%fair 3.11 · @2.80
Draw24%fair 4.14 · @2.80
Excursionistas44%fair 2.29 · @2.60
1.96Expected goals
0.87Sportivo Italiano xG
1.09Excursionistas xG
50%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–115%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–28%
1–27%
From our goals model: Sportivo Italiano 0.9 – 1.1 Excursionistas expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Excursionistas to win✓
44%
2.29
2.60 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.33
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
50%
1.99
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
57%
1.74
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Excursionistas / FT Excursionistas✗
23%
4.42
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✓
15%
6.52
–
Form
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
WLLDLW
6 Jun
@ Arsenal Sarandi
3–1
W
31 May
vs Argentino de Merlo
0–2
L
27 May
vs San Martín Burzaco
1–2
L
18 May
vs Deportivo Laferrere
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Dock Sud
3–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Excursionistas – last 6
WWDWDL
6 Jun
vs San Martín Burzaco
2–0
W
31 May
@ Villa San Carlos
2–0
W
27 May
@ Argentino Quilmes
2–2
D
23 May
vs Liniers
4–1
W
9 May
vs UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
18 Apr
vs Arsenal Sarandi
0–1
L
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Italiano and Excursionistas.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
On our numbers Sportivo Italiano have a 32% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Excursionistas 44%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Italiano 0–1 Excursionistas, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas?
Sportivo Italiano vs Excursionistas (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Republica de Italia Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
