Value bet: Sportivo Italiano to win @ 1.95 – our chance 56% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultSportivo Italiano to win ✗56% · @1.95
Double chanceSportivo Italiano or draw ✗83% · @1.17
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓56% · @1.48
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓70% · @1.38
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.87
Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B Metropolitana sees Sportivo Italiano take on Argentino de Merlo on Sunday 31 May, kicking off at 18:30 (WAT) at Republica de Italia Stadium. Sportivo Italiano are 3rd with 72 points from 42 games (in the top four), while Argentino de Merlo sit 13th on 50 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Sportivo Italiano's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to San Martín Burzaco 1–2 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.2 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Argentino de Merlo's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Deportivo Armenio 0–2 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.3 for Sportivo Italiano and 0.6 for Argentino de Merlo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 70% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Sportivo Italiano 56%, draw 27%, Argentino de Merlo 17%.
Safer route: Sportivo Italiano or draw (83%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.48.
Value angle: Sportivo Italiano to win at 1.95 – 56% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 70% chance at odds of 1.38. Predicted score: Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Argentino de Merlo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Sportivo Italiano56%fair 1.78 · @1.95
Draw27%fair 3.77 · @2.95
Argentino de Merlo17%fair 5.72 · @3.90
1.83Expected goals
1.28Sportivo Italiano xG
0.55Argentino de Merlo xG
44%Both score
30%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–021%
0–016%
2–013%
1–111%
0–19%
2–17%
From our goals model: Sportivo Italiano 1.3 – 0.6 Argentino de Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sportivo Italiano to win✗
56%
1.78
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Sportivo Italiano or draw✗
83%
1.21
1.17
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
56%
1.80
1.48
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
56%
1.78
1.62
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.38
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
89%
1.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sportivo Italiano / FT Sportivo Italiano✗
32%
3.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.87
–
Form
Sportivo Italiano – last 6
LDLWWD
27 May
vs San Martín Burzaco
1–2
L
18 May
vs Deportivo Laferrere
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ Defensores Unidos
0–2
L
5 Apr
@ Dock Sud
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Deportivo Merlo
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Ituzaingó
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Argentino de Merlo – last 6
LDLWLW
26 May
@ Deportivo Armenio
0–2
L
14 Apr
vs Excursionistas
1–1
D
10 Apr
@ Arsenal Sarandi
0–3
L
3 Apr
@ Ituzaingó
1–0
W
29 Mar
vs Talleres Remedios
0–1
L
4 Mar
vs Flandria
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sportivo Italiano and Argentino de Merlo.
What is the prediction for Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.38.
Who will win Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
On our numbers Sportivo Italiano have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Argentino de Merlo 17%.
How many goals will there be in Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 30% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Our predicted score is Sportivo Italiano 1–0 Argentino de Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo?
Sportivo Italiano vs Argentino de Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Sunday 31 May 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Republica de Italia Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
