Good pick · fair odds 1.51 · bookmaker 1.36 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.36Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.25 – our chance 52% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +18%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultDeportivo Merlo to win ✗40% · @2.80
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.33
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.25
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.21
Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo preview and prediction
The match
The Primera B Metropolitana sees Dock Sud take on Deportivo Merlo on Thursday 16 April, kicking off at 19:30 (WAT) at Estadio de los Inmigrantes. Dock Sud are 18th with 47 points from 42 games (in the bottom half), while Deportivo Merlo sit 15th on 49 points (in the bottom half). Only 2 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Dock Sud's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Sportivo Italiano 1–3 at home. At home they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Deportivo Merlo's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Sportivo Italiano 1–2 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Deportivo Merlo arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.4 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.0 for Dock Sud and 1.1 for Deportivo Merlo. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Dock Sud 33%, draw 27%, Deportivo Merlo 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.25.
Value angle: Both teams to score at 2.25 – 52% on our numbers against 44% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 66% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Dock Sud 0–1 Deportivo Merlo. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Dock Sud33%fair 3.01 · @2.62
Draw27%fair 3.71 · @2.75
Deportivo Merlo40%fair 2.51 · @2.80
2.13Expected goals
1.00Dock Sud xG
1.13Deportivo Merlo xG
52%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–113%
1–113%
0–012%
1–012%
0–28%
1–28%
From our goals model: Dock Sud 1.0 – 1.1 Deportivo Merlo expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Merlo to win✗
40%
2.51
2.80 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.33
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
2.25 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Merlo / FT Deportivo Merlo✗
22%
4.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
13.21
–
Form
Dock Sud – last 6
LDWLDL
5 Apr
vs Sportivo Italiano
1–3
L
29 Mar
@ San Martín Burzaco
1–1
D
23 Mar
vs Villa San Carlos
2–0
W
15 Mar
@ Liniers
2–3
L
4 Mar
@ UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
27 Feb
vs Villa Dalmine
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Merlo – last 5
LWDWL
29 Mar
@ Sportivo Italiano
1–2
L
5 Mar
@ Real Pilar
3–1
W
28 Feb
vs UAI Urquiza
0–0
D
22 Feb
@ Villa Dalmine
1–0
W
16 Feb
vs Excursionistas
1–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Dock Sud and Deportivo Merlo.
What is the prediction for Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
On our numbers Dock Sud have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Deportivo Merlo 40%.
How many goals will there be in Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Our predicted score is Dock Sud 0–1 Deportivo Merlo, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo?
Dock Sud vs Deportivo Merlo (Primera B Metropolitana) kicks off on Thursday 16 April 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de los Inmigrantes.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
