Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio Mario CamposecoXelajú vs Achuapa prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.39 · bookmaker 1.35 · Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Xelajú 2.0 – 0.5 Achuapa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Xelajú are clear favourites at home with a 74% chance of winning, against 9% for Achuapa.
Xelajú have taken 11 points from their last 6 matches (3W 2D 1L), scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 per game. Achuapa have 0 points from their last 6 (0W 0D 6L), averaging 0.3 scored and 2.2 conceded. Xelajú come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.5 goals (2.0 for Xelajú, 0.5 for Achuapa). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 49%. Most likely scores: 2–0 (16%), 1–0 (16%), 3–0 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Xelajú have won 0, Achuapa have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 72% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.35 is close to our fair price of 1.39.
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Xelajú to win ✓ | 74% | 1.35 | 1.22 |
| Double chance | Xelajú or draw ✓ | 91% | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Both teams to score | Not both teams to score ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 73% | 1.37 | 1.25 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 51% | 1.96 | 1.93 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.39 | 1.35 |
| Half-time result | Xelajú ahead at half-time ✓ | 51% | 1.96 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Xelajú / FT Xelajú ✓ | 48% | 2.09 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 2–0 ✗ | 16% | 6.17 | – |
Form
Xelajú – last 6
| 6 Apr | vs Malacateco | 1–0 | W |
| 2 Apr | @ Marquense | 0–1 | L |
| 29 Mar | vs Guastatoya | 1–1 | D |
| 23 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Mar | vs Municipal | 3–1 | W |
| 15 Mar | vs Antigua GFC | 1–1 | D |
Achuapa – last 6
| 7 Apr | @ Guastatoya | 1–3 | L |
| 2 Apr | vs Municipal | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Mar | @ Aurora | 0–1 | L |
| 21 Mar | vs Mictlán | 0–2 | L |
| 18 Mar | @ Mixco | 0–1 | L |
| 9 Mar | @ Comunicaciones | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
| 25 Feb 2026 | Achuapa v Xelajú | 0–0 |
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Xelajú vs Achuapa?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Xelajú vs Achuapa?
On our numbers Xelajú have a 74% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Achuapa 9%.
How many goals will there be in Xelajú vs Achuapa?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
When is Xelajú vs Achuapa?
Xelajú vs Achuapa (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Mario Camposeco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.