Liga Nacional · Guatemala · Estadio La AsuncionMictlán vs Mixco prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.28 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
Value bet: Mixco to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +14%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Mictlán 1.2 – 1.2 Mixco expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Mictlán and Mixco on our numbers – 39% for the home side, 37% for the visitors and 24% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Mictlán have taken 9 points from their last 6 matches (3W 0D 3L), scoring 1.3 and conceding 2.3 per game. Mixco have 13 points from their last 6 (4W 1D 1L), averaging 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded. Mixco come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.4 goals (1.2 for Mictlán, 1.2 for Mixco). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 42%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 1–0 (11%), 0–1 (11%).
In their last 1 meeting, Mictlán have won 0, Mixco have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 78% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.20 is close to our fair price of 1.28. For a bigger price, Mixco to win at 3.10 is our value angle (37% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Mictlán to win ✗ | 39% | 2.56 | 2.15 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 76% | 1.32 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.90 ▲ |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 67% | 1.49 | 1.40 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✗ | 58% | 1.73 | 1.62 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 78% | 1.28 | 1.20 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 46% | 2.19 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Mictlán / FT Mictlán ✗ | 21% | 4.73 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–0 ✗ | 11% | 8.76 | – |
Form
Mictlán – last 6
| 12 Apr | @ Marquense | 0–3 | L |
| 2 Apr | @ Antigua GFC | 2–8 | L |
| 21 Mar | @ Achuapa | 2–0 | W |
| 19 Mar | vs Malacateco | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | @ Guastatoya | 1–3 | L |
| 11 Mar | vs Aurora | 2–0 | W |
Mixco – last 6
| 7 Apr | vs Marquense | 2–1 | W |
| 3 Apr | @ Comunicaciones | 0–1 | L |
| 18 Mar | vs Achuapa | 1–0 | W |
| 15 Mar | @ Malacateco | 2–1 | W |
| 4 Mar | vs Municipal | 1–0 | W |
| 1 Mar | @ Aurora | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
| 26 Feb 2026 | Mixco v Mictlán | 2–2 |
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Xelajú | 22 | +15 | 39 |
| 2 |  Municipal | 22 | +11 | 38 |
| 3 |  Mixco | 22 | +4 | 36 |
| 4 |  Comunicaciones | 22 | +2 | 35 |
| 5 |  Antigua GFC | 22 | +5 | 34 |
| 6 |  Cobán Imperial | 22 | +7 | 32 |
| 7 |  Guastatoya | 22 | +8 | 31 |
| 8 |  Marquense | 22 | -4 | 30 |
| 9 |  Mictlán | 22 | -11 | 27 |
| 10 |  Malacateco | 22 | -6 | 22 |
| 11 |  Aurora | 22 | -16 | 20 |
| 12 |  Achuapa | 22 | -15 | 19 |
More Liga Nacional predictions
League hubFrequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Mictlán vs Mixco?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Mictlán vs Mixco?
On our numbers Mictlán have a 39% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Mixco 37%.
How many goals will there be in Mictlán vs Mixco?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Mictlán vs Mixco?
Mictlán vs Mixco (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Friday 17 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio La Asuncion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.