Aurora travel to Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada in the Liga Nacional on Thursday 26 February (04:00 WAT) to face Marquense. Marquense are 8th with 30 points from 22 games (in the bottom half), while Aurora sit 11th on 20 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Marquense's last 3: LWL Most recently they lost to Mictlán 1–2 away. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Aurora's last 3: WLW Most recently they beat Comunicaciones 2–0 at home. They average 1.0 scored and 0.7 conceded. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Aurora arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.5 for Marquense and 0.9 for Aurora. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Marquense 54%, draw 27%, Aurora 19%.
Safer route: Marquense or draw (81%) at 1.14.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 1.85.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Marquense 1–0 Aurora. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Marquense54%fair 1.85 · @1.77
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @3.30
Aurora19%fair 5.17 · @4.33
2.43Expected goals
1.52Marquense xG
0.91Aurora xG
56%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–18%
From our goals model: Marquense 1.5 – 0.9 Aurora expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
Marquense
Aurora
Attack vs Liga Nacional average
-23%
+6%
Goals conceded vs average
-6%
+5%
Our expected goals here
1.36
0.91
Our own ratings from every Liga Nacional result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marquense to win✗
54%
1.85
1.77
Double chance
Marquense or draw✓
81%
1.24
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
56%
1.78
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.80
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
44%
2.26
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marquense / FT Marquense✗
31%
3.24
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.48
–
Form
Marquense – last 3
LWL
22 Feb
@ Mictlán
1–2
L
20 Feb
vs Mixco
2–1
W
16 Feb
@ Xelajú
2–4
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Aurora – last 3
WLW
22 Feb
vs Comunicaciones
2–0
W
19 Feb
@ Antigua GFC
0–2
L
15 Feb
vs Cobán Imperial
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Marquense and Aurora.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Marquense vs Aurora?
On our numbers Marquense have a 54% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Aurora 19%.
How many goals will there be in Marquense vs Aurora?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Marquense vs Aurora?
Our predicted score is Marquense 1–0 Aurora, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Marquense vs Aurora?
Marquense vs Aurora (Liga Nacional) kicks off on Thursday 26 February 2026 at 04:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marquesa de la Ensenada.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
