Value bet: Patronato to win @ 3.25 – our chance 33% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNueva Chicago to win ✗40% · @2.40
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗51% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗16% · fair 6.20
Nueva Chicago vs Patronato preview and prediction
The match
Nueva Chicago host Patronato in the Primera Nacional on Monday 21 September, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Nueva Chicago. Nueva Chicago are 17th with 37 points from 36 games (in the bottom three), while Patronato sit 16th on 38 points (in the bottom three). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Nueva Chicago's last 5: LWLLL Most recently they lost to Colegiales 0–1 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.2 per game.
Patronato's last 5: DDLWD Most recently they drew with Temperley 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Patronato arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.0 points a game against 0.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 0.9 for Nueva Chicago and 0.8 for Patronato. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 74% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Nueva Chicago 40%, draw 27%, Patronato 33%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Patronato to win at 3.25 – 33% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.62. Predicted score: Nueva Chicago 0–0 Patronato. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Nueva Chicago40%fair 2.53 · @2.40
Draw27%fair 3.69 · @2.75
Patronato33%fair 3.00 · @3.25
1.76Expected goals
0.94Nueva Chicago xG
0.82Patronato xG
49%Both score
26%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–017%
1–016%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Nueva Chicago 0.9 – 0.8 Patronato expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Nueva Chicago to win✗
40%
2.53
2.40
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.37
1.40
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
53%
1.90
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
25%
4.00
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
16%
6.20
–
Form
Nueva Chicago – last 6
LWLLLL
12 Sep
@ Colegiales
0–1
L
7 Sep
vs Quilmes
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Midland
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Atlanta
0–1
L
17 Aug
@ All Boys
0–1
L
9 Aug
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
0.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Patronato – last 6
DDLWDL
13 Sep
vs Temperley
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Deportivo Maipu
0–0
D
30 Aug
vs Almagro
0–1
L
26 Aug
vs Atlanta
2–0
W
22 Aug
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–3
D
15 Aug
@ Colon Santa Fe
0–3
L
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Nueva Chicago and Patronato.
What is the prediction for Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
On our numbers Nueva Chicago have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Patronato 33%.
How many goals will there be in Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 26% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Our predicted score is Nueva Chicago 0–0 Patronato, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Nueva Chicago vs Patronato?
Nueva Chicago vs Patronato (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 21 September 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nueva Chicago.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
