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Primera Nacional · Argentina · Estadio 20 de Octubre

Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman prediction & analysis

53%
Footrivo pick

Not both teams to score

Fair pick · fair odds 1.89 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓

4/10Rating
1.44Odds
2

Value bet: San Martin Tucuman to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultTristan Suarez to win ✓43% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75% · @1.40
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.98

Win chances

Tristan Suarez43%fair 2.31 · @2.25
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @2.75
San Martin Tucuman32%fair 3.16 · @3.50
1.79Expected goals
1.00Tristan Suarez xG
0.79San Martin Tucuman xG
47%Both score
27%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–017%
0–017%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%

From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.0 – 0.8 San Martin Tucuman expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Tristan Suarez hold the edge on home soil with a 43% chance of winning, against 32% for San Martin Tucuman.

Tristan Suarez have taken 15 points from their last 6 matches (5W 0D 1L), scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.7 per game. San Martin Tucuman have 6 points from their last 6 (1W 3D 2L), averaging 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded. Tristan Suarez come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 1.8 goals (1.0 for Tristan Suarez, 0.8 for San Martin Tucuman). That points to a tight, low-scoring game – under 2.5 goals is 73% likely. Most likely scores: 1–0 (17%), 0–0 (17%), 1–1 (13%).

In their last 1 meeting, Tristan Suarez have won 0, San Martin Tucuman have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 0.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Not both teams to score at a 53% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.89. For a bigger price, San Martin Tucuman to win at 3.50 is our value angle (32% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultTristan Suarez to win ✓43%2.312.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓75%1.331.40
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓53%1.891.44
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓53%1.87–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73%1.36–
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓89%1.12–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗53%1.90–
Half-time / full-timeHT Draw / FT Draw ✗24%4.09–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17%5.98–

Form

Tristan Suarez – last 6

LWWWWW
29 Aug@ Atletico DE Rafaela1–2L
22 Augvs Agropecuario2–0W
16 Augvs Almirante Brown3–1W
10 Aug@ Gimnasia Jujuy2–0W
3 Aug@ Club Atlético Güemes3–1W
25 Julvs Chacarita Juniors1–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

San Martin Tucuman – last 6

DWDDLL
30 Augvs Club Atlético Güemes1–1D
23 Aug@ Chacarita Juniors2–1W
16 Augvs Deportivo Madryn2–2D
9 Augvs San Martin S.J.1–1D
1 Aug@ Nueva Chicago1–2L
25 Julvs Temperley1–2L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

19 Apr 2026San Martin Tucuman v Tristan Suarez0–0

Primera Nacional table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Tristan Suarez3616164+1864
2Atlanta3619512+862
3Temperley3616137+1261
4Gimnasia Jujuy36161010+458
5Midland36151011+1455
6Deportivo Maipu36141012+952
7Colegiales36141012+452
8Gimnasia Y Tiro36141012+252
9San Martin S.J.36131211+651
10San Martin Tucuman36111411+247
11Atletico DE Rafaela36121113-647
12Agropecuario36121014-846
13Quilmes3612915+345
14Chacarita Juniors3612618-642
15Almagro3611916-1142
16Patronato3671712-638
17Nueva Chicago3691017-1137
18Club Atlético Güemes366921-3427

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Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman?

Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.

Who will win Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman?

On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and San Martin Tucuman 32%.

How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman?

We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.

When is Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman?

Tristan Suarez vs San Martin Tucuman (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 5 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.