Value bet: Colon Santa Fe to win @ 3.75 – our chance 34% vs 27% implied by the price (edge +26%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerro Carril Oeste to win ✓40% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓58% · fair 1.71
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.88
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe preview and prediction
The match
Ferro Carril Oeste host Colon Santa Fe in the Primera Nacional on Friday 17 July, with kick-off at 23:30 (WAT) at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry. Ferro Carril Oeste are 2nd with 66 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Colon Santa Fe sit 5th on 60 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Ferro Carril Oeste's last 5: WWWWW Most recently they beat San Miguel 1–0 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Colon Santa Fe's last 5: WWLWD Most recently they beat Central Norte 4–0 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Ferro Carril Oeste arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.7 points a game against 1.8.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 1 March 2026, finished Colon Santa Fe 1–1 Ferro Carril Oeste.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.1 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.9 for Colon Santa Fe. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ferro Carril Oeste 40%, draw 26%, Colon Santa Fe 34%.
Value angle: Colon Santa Fe to win at 3.75 – 34% on our numbers against 27% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Either team to win – a 74% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Colon Santa Fe. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferro Carril Oeste40%fair 2.48 · @2.10
Draw26%fair 3.83 · @2.80
Colon Santa Fe34%fair 2.97 · @3.75
1.98Expected goals
1.05Ferro Carril Oeste xG
0.93Colon Santa Fe xG
42%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
0–014%
1–113%
0–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ferro Carril Oeste 1.1 – 0.9 Colon Santa Fe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe?
Our pick is Either team to win with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe?
On our numbers Ferro Carril Oeste have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Colon Santa Fe 34%.
How many goals will there be in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 42% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe?
Our predicted score is Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Colon Santa Fe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe?
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Colon Santa Fe (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Friday 17 July 2026 at 23:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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