Value bet: Ferro Carril Oeste to win @ 1.95 – our chance 57% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultFerro Carril Oeste to win ✓57% · @1.95
Double chanceFerro Carril Oeste or draw ✓83% · @1.12
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗56% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗20% · fair 4.89
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano preview and prediction
The match
Ferro Carril Oeste host Defensores De Belgrano in the Primera Nacional on Monday 11 May, with kick-off at 23:00 (WAT) at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry. Ferro Carril Oeste are 2nd with 66 points from 36 games (in the top four), while Defensores De Belgrano sit 15th on 39 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Ferro Carril Oeste's last 3: LLD Most recently they lost to Almirante Brown 0–1 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Defensores De Belgrano's last 4: LWDD Most recently they lost to Racing Cordoba 0–3 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Defensores De Belgrano arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.3.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.9 goals: 1.3 for Ferro Carril Oeste and 0.5 for Defensores De Belgrano. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely, and at least one clean sheet is more likely than not. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Ferro Carril Oeste 57%, draw 26%, Defensores De Belgrano 17%.
Both teams to score: no (56%) at 1.44.
Value angle: Ferro Carril Oeste to win at 1.95 – 57% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Defensores De Belgrano. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Ferro Carril Oeste57%fair 1.74 · @1.95
Draw26%fair 3.87 · @2.70
Defensores De Belgrano17%fair 5.95 · @4.60
1.87Expected goals
1.32Ferro Carril Oeste xG
0.55Defensores De Belgrano xG
44%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–020%
0–015%
2–014%
1–111%
0–18%
2–17%
From our goals model: Ferro Carril Oeste 1.3 – 0.5 Defensores De Belgrano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ferro Carril Oeste to win✓
57%
1.74
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Ferro Carril Oeste or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.12
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
56%
1.77
1.44
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
88%
1.14
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ferro Carril Oeste / FT Ferro Carril Oeste✗
33%
3.03
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
20%
4.89
–
Form
Ferro Carril Oeste – last 3
LLD
28 Apr
vs Almirante Brown
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Los Andes
0–2
L
1 Mar
@ Colon Santa Fe
1–1
D
0.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Defensores De Belgrano – last 4
LWDD
20 Apr
@ Racing Cordoba
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Almirante Brown
2–0
W
30 Mar
vs Atletico DE Rafaela
1–1
D
22 Feb
vs Godoy Cruz
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
25%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ferro Carril Oeste and Defensores De Belgrano.
What is the prediction for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano?
On our numbers Ferro Carril Oeste have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Defensores De Belgrano 17%.
How many goals will there be in Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 44% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano?
Our predicted score is Ferro Carril Oeste 1–0 Defensores De Belgrano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano?
Ferro Carril Oeste vs Defensores De Belgrano (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Monday 11 May 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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