Value bet: Agropecuario to win @ 3.60 – our chance 30% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultAtletico DE Rafaela to win ✓46% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.79
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario preview and prediction
The match
Agropecuario travel to Estadio Nuevo Monumental in the Primera Nacional on Tuesday 21 April (00:00 WAT) to face Atletico DE Rafaela. Atletico DE Rafaela are 11th with 47 points from 36 games (in the bottom half), while Agropecuario sit 12th on 46 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: DLDLW Most recently they drew with Tristan Suarez 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Agropecuario's last 5: LDWLL Most recently they lost to Union Santa Fe 0–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.4 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Atletico DE Rafaela arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Atletico DE Rafaela and 0.8 for Agropecuario. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 71% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Atletico DE Rafaela 46%, draw 24%, Agropecuario 30%.
Both teams to score: no (52%) at 1.50.
Value angle: Agropecuario to win at 3.60 – 30% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 71% chance at odds of 1.36. Predicted score: Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Agropecuario. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Atletico DE Rafaela46%fair 2.18 · @2.15
Draw24%fair 4.17 · @2.85
Agropecuario30%fair 3.32 · @3.60
1.80Expected goals
1.05Atletico DE Rafaela xG
0.76Agropecuario xG
48%Both score
29%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–017%
0–017%
1–113%
0–112%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Atletico DE Rafaela 1.0 – 0.8 Agropecuario expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atletico DE Rafaela to win✓
46%
2.18
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.30
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.65
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
71%
1.41
1.36
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
89%
1.12
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
52%
1.91
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
24%
4.13
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
17%
5.79
–
Form
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
DLDLWW
14 Apr
@ Tristan Suarez
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Temperley
1–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Agropecuario – last 5
LDWLL
31 Mar
@ Union Santa Fe
0–2
L
27 Mar
@ Ciudad de Bolívar
0–0
D
15 Mar
vs Chacarita Juniors
2–0
W
1 Mar
vs Nueva Chicago
0–2
L
23 Feb
@ Temperley
0–1
L
0.4Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atletico DE Rafaela and Agropecuario.
What is the prediction for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario?
On our numbers Atletico DE Rafaela have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Agropecuario 30%.
How many goals will there be in Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 29% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario?
Our predicted score is Atletico DE Rafaela 1–0 Agropecuario, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario?
Atletico DE Rafaela vs Agropecuario (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Tuesday 21 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Monumental.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
