Value bet: Atletico DE Rafaela to win @ 4.00 – our chance 29% vs 25% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTristan Suarez to win ✗45% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗74% · @1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓53% · @1.50
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓72% · @1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.66
Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela preview and prediction
The match
The Primera Nacional sees Tristan Suarez take on Atletico DE Rafaela on Tuesday 14 April, kicking off at 00:00 (WAT) at Estadio 20 de Octubre. Tristan Suarez are 1st with 64 points from 36 games (top of the table), while Atletico DE Rafaela sit 11th on 47 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tristan Suarez's last 3: LWW Most recently they lost to Sarmiento Junin 0–1 away. They average 1.7 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Atletico DE Rafaela's last 5: LDLWW Most recently they lost to Club Atlético Güemes 1–2 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Tristan Suarez arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.8 goals: 1.0 for Tristan Suarez and 0.7 for Atletico DE Rafaela. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 72% likely.
Value angle: Atletico DE Rafaela to win at 4.00 – 29% on our numbers against 25% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.35. Predicted score: Tristan Suarez 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tristan Suarez45%fair 2.21 · @2.15
Draw26%fair 3.89 · @2.60
Atletico DE Rafaela29%fair 3.44 · @4.00
1.76Expected goals
1.03Tristan Suarez xG
0.73Atletico DE Rafaela xG
47%Both score
28%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–018%
0–017%
1–113%
0–113%
2–09%
2–17%
From our goals model: Tristan Suarez 1.0 – 0.7 Atletico DE Rafaela expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tristan Suarez to win✗
45%
2.21
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✗
74%
1.35
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
1.50
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
54%
1.85
1.67
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
72%
1.40
1.35
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
90%
1.11
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
53%
1.88
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
25%
4.04
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.66
–
Form
Tristan Suarez – last 3
LWW
9 Apr
@ Sarmiento Junin
0–1
L
21 Mar
vs Gimnasia Jujuy
3–0
W
2 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Atletico DE Rafaela – last 6
LDLWWL
6 Apr
vs Club Atlético Güemes
1–2
L
30 Mar
@ Defensores De Belgrano
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ Belgrano Cordoba
0–3
L
14 Mar
vs San Martin S.J.
1–0
W
2 Mar
vs Temperley
1–0
W
22 Feb
@ Deportivo Maipu
1–2
L
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tristan Suarez and Atletico DE Rafaela.
What is the prediction for Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
On our numbers Tristan Suarez have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Atletico DE Rafaela 29%.
How many goals will there be in Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
We expect about 1.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 28% likely and both teams score 47% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Our predicted score is Tristan Suarez 1–0 Atletico DE Rafaela, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.8 goals in total.
When is Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela?
Tristan Suarez vs Atletico DE Rafaela (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Tuesday 14 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 20 de Octubre.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
