Value bet: Almagro to win @ 3.45 – our chance 33% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultColegiales to win40% · @2.35
Double chanceEither team to win72% · @1.38
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score54% · @1.40
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–017% · fair 5.92
Colegiales vs Almagro preview and prediction
The match
Colegiales host Almagro in the Primera Nacional on Saturday 4 April, with kick-off at 20:00 (WAT) at Estadio de Colegiales. Colegiales are 7th with 52 points from 36 games (in the top half), while Almagro sit 15th on 42 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Colegiales's last 3: DWL Most recently they drew with San Miguel 0–0 at home. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 2 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Almagro's last 3: DLD Most recently they drew with Midland 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.3 per game.
Colegiales arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.3 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 1.7 goals: 0.9 for Colegiales and 0.8 for Almagro. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 75% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Value angle: Almagro to win at 3.45 – 33% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 2.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Colegiales 0–0 Almagro. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Colegiales40%fair 2.52 · @2.35
Draw28%fair 3.61 · @2.60
Almagro33%fair 3.07 · @3.45
1.67Expected goals
0.90Colegiales xG
0.77Almagro xG
46%Both score
25%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–019%
1–017%
0–115%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Colegiales 0.9 – 0.8 Almagro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Colegiales to win
40%
2.52
2.35
Double chance
Either team to win
72%
1.38
1.38
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score
54%
1.86
1.40
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
50%
1.98
1.83
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
75%
1.33
1.25
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
91%
1.10
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
55%
1.83
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw
26%
3.80
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
17%
5.92
–
Form
Colegiales – last 3
DWL
29 Mar
vs San Miguel
0–0
D
23 Feb
vs Atlanta
1–0
W
14 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Almagro – last 3
DLD
15 Mar
@ Midland
1–1
D
28 Feb
@ Gimnasia Y Tiro
0–2
L
14 Feb
@ Atletico DE Rafaela
0–0
D
0.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Colegiales and Almagro.
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Colegiales vs Almagro?
On our numbers Colegiales have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 28% and Almagro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Colegiales vs Almagro?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 25% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Colegiales vs Almagro?
Our predicted score is Colegiales 0–0 Almagro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Colegiales vs Almagro?
Colegiales vs Almagro (Primera Nacional) kicks off on Saturday 4 April 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio de Colegiales.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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