Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.28Odds
1
Value bet: IFK Varnamo to win @ 1.95 – our chance 59% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultIFK Varnamo to win ✗59% · @1.95
Double chanceIFK Varnamo or draw ✓85% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.91
IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF preview and prediction
The match
The Superettan sees IFK Varnamo take on Norrby IF on Sunday 17 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Finnvedsvallen. IFK Varnamo are 11th with 35 points from 30 games (in the bottom half), while Norrby IF sit 14th on 28 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
IFK Varnamo's last 5: LLLWW Most recently they lost to Orebro SK 0–1 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 2.3 conceded.
Norrby IF's last 5: DDLLW Most recently they drew with Landskrona BoIS 1–1 away. They average 1.5 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.0 goals: 2.0 for IFK Varnamo and 1.0 for Norrby IF. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score in 59% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: IFK Varnamo 59%, draw 25%, Norrby IF 15%.
Safer route: IFK Varnamo or draw (85%) at 1.28.
Both teams to score: yes (59%) at 1.67.
Value angle: IFK Varnamo to win at 1.95 – 59% on our numbers against 51% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was IFK Varnamo or draw – a 85% chance at odds of 1.28, above our fair price of 1.18, so there is value in it. Predicted score: IFK Varnamo 2–0 Norrby IF. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
IFK Varnamo59%fair 1.69 · @1.95
Draw25%fair 3.92 · @3.55
Norrby IF15%fair 6.48 · @3.60
3.01Expected goals
2.02IFK Varnamo xG
0.99Norrby IF xG
59%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
1–010%
2–110%
1–110%
3–07%
3–17%
From our goals model: IFK Varnamo 2.0 – 1.0 Norrby IF expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
IFK Varnamo to win✗
59%
1.69
1.95 ▲
Double chance
IFK Varnamo or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.28 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.70
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
67%
1.50
1.38
Half-time result
IFK Varnamo ahead at half-time✗
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT IFK Varnamo / FT IFK Varnamo✗
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.91
–
Form
IFK Varnamo – last 6
LLLWWL
12 May
vs Orebro SK
0–1
L
8 May
@ Varbergs BoIS FC
2–3
L
3 May
@ Ostersunds FK
2–3
L
26 Apr
vs Oddevold
3–1
W
14 Apr
vs GIF Sundsvall
3–0
W
4 Apr
@ IFK Norrkoping
0–6
L
1.7Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Norrby IF – last 6
DDLLWL
12 May
@ Landskrona BoIS
1–1
D
19 Apr
vs Falkenbergs FF
2–2
D
5 Apr
vs IK brage
0–1
L
28 Mar
vs Skövde AIK
1–2
L
19 Mar
vs Dalstorps
4–1
W
7 Mar
@ Ljungskile SK
1–2
L
1.5Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
83%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between IFK Varnamo and Norrby IF.
What is the prediction for IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Our pick is IFK Varnamo or draw with a 85% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
On our numbers IFK Varnamo have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Norrby IF 15%.
How many goals will there be in IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
Our predicted score is IFK Varnamo 2–0 Norrby IF, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.
When is IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF?
IFK Varnamo vs Norrby IF (Superettan) kicks off on Sunday 17 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Finnvedsvallen.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
