KuPS host Mariehamn in the Veikkausliiga on Sunday 23 August, with kick-off at 13:00 (WAT) at Vare Areena. KuPS are 3rd with 53 points from 32 games, while Mariehamn sit 6th on 19 points. A gap of 34 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
KuPS's last 5: DWLDD Most recently they drew with Shamrock Rovers 1–1 away. They average 1.2 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Mariehamn's last 5: WLLDL Most recently they beat SJK 2–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 3 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
KuPS arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 2.1 for KuPS and 0.5 for Mariehamn. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 52%.
Betting angles
Win chances: KuPS 75%, draw 17%, Mariehamn 8%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 1.80.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was KuPS to win – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: KuPS 2–0 Mariehamn. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
KuPS75%fair 1.33 · @1.22
Draw17%fair 6.05 · @5.80
Mariehamn8%fair 11.85 · @10.00
2.65Expected goals
2.12KuPS xG
0.53Mariehamn xG
52%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–016%
1–015%
3–011%
2–18%
1–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: KuPS 2.1 – 0.5 Mariehamn expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
KuPS to win✗
75%
1.33
1.22
Double chance
KuPS or draw✗
92%
1.09
1.05
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.80
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.98
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.38
–
Half-time result
KuPS ahead at half-time✗
53%
1.90
–
Half-time / full-time
HT KuPS / FT KuPS✗
49%
2.02
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
16%
6.29
–
Form
KuPS – last 6
DWLDDW
20 Aug
@ Shamrock Rovers
1–1
D
16 Aug
@ Lahti
2–1
W
13 Aug
@ Universitatea Craiova
1–2
L
9 Aug
vs Turku PS
1–1
D
6 Aug
vs Universitatea Craiova
1–1
D
1 Aug
@ Gnistan
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
83%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Mariehamn – last 6
WLLDLL
15 Aug
vs SJK
2–0
W
9 Aug
@ Ilves
0–2
L
1 Aug
@ Turku PS
0–3
L
25 Jul
vs AC Oulu
1–1
D
20 Jul
vs Lahti
0–2
L
11 Jul
@ Gnistan
2–4
L
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between KuPS and Mariehamn.
Our pick is KuPS to win with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win KuPS vs Mariehamn?
On our numbers KuPS have a 75% chance of winning, the draw 17% and Mariehamn 8%.
How many goals will there be in KuPS vs Mariehamn?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for KuPS vs Mariehamn?
Our predicted score is KuPS 2–0 Mariehamn, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is KuPS vs Mariehamn?
KuPS vs Mariehamn (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 13:00 (West Africa Time) at Vare Areena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
