Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
2
Value bet: Gnistan to win @ 1.94 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultGnistan to win ✓56% · @1.94
Double chanceGnistan or draw ✓79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.13
Mariehamn vs Gnistan preview and prediction
The match
Gnistan travel to Wiklof Holding Arena in the Veikkausliiga on Saturday 13 June (17:00 WAT) to face Mariehamn. Mariehamn are 6th with 19 points from 27 games, while Gnistan sit 5th on 46 points. A gap of 27 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Mariehamn's last 5: LLLWD Most recently they lost to HJK Helsinki 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Gnistan's last 5: WLWDW Most recently they beat SJK 3–2 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Gnistan arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.8 points a game against 1.2.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 0.9 for Mariehamn and 1.7 for Gnistan. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 55%.
Value angle: Gnistan to win at 1.94 – 56% on our numbers against 52% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Gnistan or draw – a 79% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Mariehamn 0–1 Gnistan. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Mariehamn21%fair 4.80 · @3.60
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.35
Gnistan56%fair 1.79 · @1.94
2.62Expected goals
0.93Mariehamn xG
1.70Gnistan xG
55%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–112%
1–111%
0–210%
1–210%
0–07%
1–07%
From our goals model: Mariehamn 0.9 – 1.7 Gnistan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gnistan to win✓
56%
1.79
1.94 ▲
Double chance
Gnistan or draw✓
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
55%
1.82
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.96
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.30
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
42%
2.39
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gnistan / FT Gnistan✓
34%
2.94
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.13
–
Form
Mariehamn – last 6
LLLWDW
30 May
@ HJK Helsinki
0–1
L
26 May
vs Lahti
0–1
L
23 May
@ FF Jaro
0–3
L
13 May
vs PuiU Helsinki
3–0
W
10 May
@ Lahti
1–1
D
28 Apr
@ HPS
2–1
W
1.0Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Gnistan – last 6
WLWDWD
30 May
vs SJK
3–2
W
23 May
@ Ilves
0–2
L
5 May
vs Inter Turku
2–0
W
24 Apr
@ Turku PS
1–1
D
14 Apr
@ POHU
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Kooteepee
1–1
D
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mariehamn and Gnistan.
Our pick is Gnistan or draw with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
On our numbers Mariehamn have a 21% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gnistan 56%.
How many goals will there be in Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Our predicted score is Mariehamn 0–1 Gnistan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Mariehamn vs Gnistan?
Mariehamn vs Gnistan (Veikkausliiga) kicks off on Saturday 13 June 2026 at 17:00 (West Africa Time) at Wiklof Holding Arena.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
