Very strong pick · fair odds 1.18 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Lillestrom to win @ 1.75 – our chance 65% vs 57% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLillestrom to win ✗65% · @1.75
Double chanceLillestrom or draw ✗84% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗14% · fair 7.38
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad preview and prediction
The match
Fredrikstad travel to Åråsen in the Eliteserien on Sunday 30 August (18:15 WAT) to face Lillestrom. Lillestrom are 4th with 45 points from 26 games (in the top four), while Fredrikstad sit 12th on 30 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 15 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Lillestrom's last 5: DDDLL Most recently they drew with Egnatia Rrogozhinë 1–1 at home. At home they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game.
Fredrikstad's last 5: WWWWL Most recently they beat Eidsvold IF 7–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 2 of their last 4. They average 1.7 scored and 1.0 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Fredrikstad arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.5.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 July 2026, finished Fredrikstad 0–2 Lillestrom.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Lillestrom and 0.8 for Fredrikstad. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 56%.
Value angle: Lillestrom to win at 1.75 – 65% on our numbers against 57% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Lillestrom or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Lillestrom 1–0 Fredrikstad. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lillestrom65%fair 1.55 · @1.75
Draw20%fair 5.01 · @3.70
Fredrikstad16%fair 6.44 · @4.00
2.62Expected goals
1.86Lillestrom xG
0.76Fredrikstad xG
56%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Lillestrom 1.9 – 0.8 Fredrikstad expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Our pick is Lillestrom or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
On our numbers Lillestrom have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Fredrikstad 16%.
How many goals will there be in Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Our predicted score is Lillestrom 1–0 Fredrikstad, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad?
Lillestrom vs Fredrikstad (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 18:15 (West Africa Time) at Åråsen.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
