Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2
Value bet: Tromso to win @ 3.00 – our chance 36% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultMolde to win ✓41% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓65% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.48
Molde vs Tromso preview and prediction
The match
The Eliteserien sees Molde take on Tromso on Sunday 16 August, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Aker Stadion. Molde are 5th with 44 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Tromso sit 6th on 40 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Molde's last 5: LDWLD Most recently they lost to Kristiansund BK 1–2 away. Goals have not been a problem: 2.0 per game.
Tromso's last 5: WWWLL Most recently they beat CFR 1907 Cluj 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 3 and lost 1 of their last 4. Goals have not been a problem: 3.0 per game.
Tromso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 1.6 for Molde and 1.5 for Tromso. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score in 65% of our simulations. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Molde 41%, draw 22%, Tromso 36%.
Both teams to score: yes (65%) at 1.55.
Value angle: Tromso to win at 3.00 – 36% on our numbers against 33% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 79% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Molde 1–1 Tromso. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Molde41%fair 2.41 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.60
Tromso36%fair 2.76 · @3.00
3.06Expected goals
1.59Molde xG
1.47Tromso xG
65%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
2–19%
1–28%
1–07%
0–17%
2–26%
From our goals model: Molde 1.6 – 1.5 Tromso expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Molde to win✓
41%
2.41
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
65%
1.55
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
79%
1.26
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
39%
2.55
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Molde / FT Molde✓
24%
4.14
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.48
–
Form
Molde – last 6
LDWLDL
9 Aug
@ Kristiansund BK
1–2
L
2 Aug
vs Sarpsborg 08 FF
3–3
D
26 Jul
@ KFUM Oslo
4–2
W
18 Jul
vs Brann
1–2
L
11 Jul
@ Aalesund
2–2
D
5 Jul
@ Rosenborg
1–2
L
2.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Tromso – last 6
WWWLLW
13 Aug
vs CFR 1907 Cluj
2–1
W
6 Aug
@ CFR 1907 Cluj
5–0
W
2 Aug
@ Aalesund
6–2
W
30 Jul
@ Hradec Králové
1–3
L
23 Jul
vs Hradec Králové
0–1
L
18 Jul
@ Ham-Kam
4–1
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Molde and Tromso.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 79% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Molde vs Tromso?
On our numbers Molde have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Tromso 36%.
How many goals will there be in Molde vs Tromso?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 65% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Molde vs Tromso?
Our predicted score is Molde 1–1 Tromso, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Molde vs Tromso?
Molde vs Tromso (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Aker Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
