Very strong pick · fair odds 1.19 · bookmaker 1.25
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Tromso to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultTromso to win63% · @1.90
Double chanceTromso or draw84% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score55% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–012% · fair 8.31
Tromso vs Molde preview and prediction
The match
The Eliteserien sees Tromso take on Molde on Sunday 10 May, kicking off at 16:00 (WAT) at Alfheim. Tromso are 6th with 40 points from 26 games (in the top half), while Molde sit 5th on 44 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Tromso's last 5: LWDWW Most recently they lost to Brann 0–5 at home. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 4. They average 1.5 scored and 1.0 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Molde's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat BodoGlimt 1–0 away. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Tromso arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.2 points a game against 1.4.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.9 for Tromso and 0.8 for Molde. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 55%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tromso 63%, draw 20%, Molde 16%.
Safer route: Tromso or draw (84%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (55%) at 1.67.
Value angle: Tromso to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tromso or draw – a 84% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.19, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tromso 1–0 Molde. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tromso63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
Draw20%fair 4.90 · @3.60
Molde16%fair 6.14 · @3.75
2.77Expected goals
1.93Tromso xG
0.85Molde xG
55%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–012%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–07%
3–16%
From our goals model: Tromso 1.9 – 0.8 Molde expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tromso to win
63%
1.58
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Tromso or draw
84%
1.19
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
55%
1.81
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
52%
1.92
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
69%
1.45
1.38
Half-time result
Tromso ahead at half-time
45%
2.22
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tromso / FT Tromso
40%
2.50
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
12%
8.31
–
Form
Tromso – last 6
LWDWWW
29 Apr
vs Brann
0–5
L
19 Apr
@ Sarpsborg 08 FF
1–0
W
15 Apr
vs Lillestrom
0–0
D
6 Apr
vs Rosenborg
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Brann
2–1
W
15 Mar
vs Fredrikstad
4–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Molde – last 5
WWLLD
4 May
@ BodoGlimt
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Valerenga
5–1
W
6 Apr
vs Lillestrom
0–1
L
5 Mar
vs BodoGlimt
1–2
L
17 Feb
vs Viking
2–2
D
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
60%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tromso and Molde.
Our pick is Tromso or draw with a 84% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Tromso vs Molde?
On our numbers Tromso have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Molde 16%.
How many goals will there be in Tromso vs Molde?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tromso vs Molde?
Our predicted score is Tromso 1–0 Molde, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Tromso vs Molde?
Tromso vs Molde (Eliteserien) kicks off on Sunday 10 May 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Alfheim.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
