Value bet: Cancún to win @ 3.25 – our chance 34% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultLeones Negros UDG to win45% · @2.12
Double chanceEither team to win79% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score61% · @1.70
GoalsOver 1.5 goals74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–010% · fair 9.83
Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Leones Negros UDG take on Cancún on Sunday 19 April, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Cancún sit 5th on 25 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Leones Negros UDG's last 5: LWDDL Most recently they lost to Venados FC 1–2 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Cancún's last 5: WWDDD Most recently they beat Atlante FC 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.0 goals a game.
Cancún arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.7 goals: 1.5 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.2 for Cancún. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 61%.
Value angle: Cancún to win at 3.25 – 34% on our numbers against 31% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 74% chance at odds of 1.28. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Cancún. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG45%fair 2.21 · @2.12
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.45
Cancún34%fair 2.95 · @3.25
2.66Expected goals
1.45Leones Negros UDG xG
1.21Cancún xG
61%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
0–18%
1–27%
2–07%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.5 – 1.2 Cancún expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Leones Negros UDG to win
45%
2.21
2.12
Double chance
Either team to win
79%
1.26
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
61%
1.64
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
72%
1.40
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time
43%
2.35
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Leones Negros UDG / FT Leones Negros UDG
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
10%
9.83
–
Form
Leones Negros UDG – last 6
LWDDLD
12 Apr
@ Venados FC
1–2
L
5 Apr
vs Monarcas
2–0
W
28 Mar
@ Alebrijes de Oaxaca
1–1
D
15 Mar
@ Dorados
1–1
D
5 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–3
L
1 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
1.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Cancún – last 6
WWDDDW
12 Apr
vs Atlante FC
2–1
W
4 Apr
@ Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
29 Mar
vs Tepatitlán
2–2
D
22 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–2
D
15 Mar
vs CA La Paz
1–1
D
7 Mar
@ Tapatío
2–1
W
2.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Cancún.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Cancún 34%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Cancún, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún?
Leones Negros UDG vs Cancún (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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