Very strong pick · fair odds 1.13 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓
10/10Rating
1.22Odds
1
Value bet: Tlaxcala to win @ 1.73 – our chance 65% vs 58% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultTlaxcala to win ✗65% · @1.73
Double chanceTlaxcala or draw ✓88% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.53
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗11% · fair 9.46
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC preview and prediction
The match
Venados FC travel to Estadio Tlahuicole in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 19 April (00:00 WAT) to face Tlaxcala. Tlaxcala are 8th with 22 points from 15 games (in the top half), while Venados FC sit 6th on 25 points (in the top half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Tlaxcala's last 5: DLWDD Most recently they drew with Monarcas 0–0 away. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Venados FC's last 5: WDWLL Most recently they beat Leones Negros UDG 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 1.3 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.2 for Tlaxcala and 0.9 for Venados FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 60%. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tlaxcala 65%, draw 24%, Venados FC 12%.
Safer route: Tlaxcala or draw (88%) at 1.22.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.53.
Value angle: Tlaxcala to win at 1.73 – 65% on our numbers against 58% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Tlaxcala or draw – a 88% chance at odds of 1.22, above our fair price of 1.13, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Tlaxcala 2–0 Venados FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tlaxcala65%fair 1.55 · @1.73
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.95
Venados FC12%fair 8.65 · @4.20
3.17Expected goals
2.24Tlaxcala xG
0.93Venados FC xG
60%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–011%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Tlaxcala 2.2 – 0.9 Venados FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tlaxcala to win✗
65%
1.55
1.73 ▲
Double chance
Tlaxcala or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.22 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.23
1.18
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.55
Half-time result
Tlaxcala ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tlaxcala / FT Tlaxcala✗
44%
2.27
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
11%
9.46
–
Form
Tlaxcala – last 6
DLWDDL
12 Apr
@ Monarcas
0–0
D
8 Apr
@ Tapatío
0–3
L
4 Apr
vs Dorados
2–0
W
23 Mar
@ CDS Tampico Madero
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Atlante FC
1–1
D
8 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Venados FC – last 6
WDWLLL
12 Apr
vs Leones Negros UDG
2–1
W
6 Apr
@ CDS Tampico Madero
1–1
D
28 Mar
vs Atlante FC
4–1
W
21 Mar
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
7 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
0–1
L
28 Feb
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–2
L
1.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tlaxcala and Venados FC.
What is the prediction for Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
Our pick is Tlaxcala or draw with a 88% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
On our numbers Tlaxcala have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Venados FC 12%.
How many goals will there be in Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
Our predicted score is Tlaxcala 2–0 Venados FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Tlaxcala vs Venados FC?
Tlaxcala vs Venados FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Tlahuicole.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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