Value bet: CDS Tampico Madero to win @ 2.38 – our chance 47% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultCDS Tampico Madero to win ✓47% · @2.38
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.85
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗11% · fair 8.85
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero preview and prediction
The match
Alebrijes de Oaxaca host CDS Tampico Madero in the Liga De Expansión MX on Saturday 11 April, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT). Alebrijes de Oaxaca are 9th with 22 points from 15 games (in the bottom half), while CDS Tampico Madero sit 14th on 15 points (in the bottom three).
Form guide
Alebrijes de Oaxaca's last 5: LDLWL Most recently they lost to Tepatitlán 0–2 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.7 scored and 3.0 conceded.
CDS Tampico Madero's last 5: DDDWL Most recently they drew with Venados FC 1–1 at home. They average 1.2 scored and 0.7 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.1 for Alebrijes de Oaxaca and 1.5 for CDS Tampico Madero. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 45%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: CDS Tampico Madero to win at 2.38 – 47% on our numbers against 42% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Alebrijes de Oaxaca31%fair 3.25 · @2.92
Draw22%fair 4.53 · @3.25
CDS Tampico Madero47%fair 2.12 · @2.38
2.55Expected goals
1.10Alebrijes de Oaxaca xG
1.45CDS Tampico Madero xG
52%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
0–111%
1–29%
1–09%
0–28%
0–08%
From our goals model: Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1.1 – 1.5 CDS Tampico Madero expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
CDS Tampico Madero to win✓
47%
2.12
2.38 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.91
1.85
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
70%
1.42
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
55%
1.81
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
1.22
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.30
–
Half-time / full-time
HT CDS Tampico Madero / FT CDS Tampico Madero✓
27%
3.75
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
11%
8.85
–
Form
Alebrijes de Oaxaca – last 6
LDLWLW
4 Apr
@ Tepatitlán
0–2
L
28 Mar
vs Leones Negros UDG
1–1
D
21 Mar
@ CA La Paz
0–4
L
14 Mar
vs Tapatío
4–3
W
8 Mar
@ Irapuato
2–6
L
28 Feb
vs Dorados
3–2
W
1.7Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
CDS Tampico Madero – last 6
DDDWLW
6 Apr
vs Venados FC
1–1
D
28 Mar
@ CA La Paz
1–1
D
23 Mar
vs Tlaxcala
0–0
D
19 Mar
vs Correcaminos Uat
3–1
W
14 Mar
@ Mineros de Zacatecas
0–1
L
9 Mar
vs Dorados
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alebrijes de Oaxaca and CDS Tampico Madero.
What is the prediction for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero?
On our numbers Alebrijes de Oaxaca have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 22% and CDS Tampico Madero 47%.
How many goals will there be in Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Our predicted score is Alebrijes de Oaxaca 1–1 CDS Tampico Madero, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero?
Alebrijes de Oaxaca vs CDS Tampico Madero (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Saturday 11 April 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time).
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
