Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán preview and prediction
The match
The Liga De Expansión MX sees Leones Negros UDG take on Tepatitlán on Sunday 15 February, kicking off at 19:00 (WAT) at Estadio Jalisco. Leones Negros UDG are 2nd with 30 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Tepatitlán sit 16th on 7 points (in the bottom three). A gap of 23 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.2 for Leones Negros UDG and 1.4 for Tepatitlán. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 57%.
Our pre-match pick was Under 3.5 goals – a 72% chance at odds of 1.33. Predicted score: Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Tepatitlán. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Leones Negros UDG35%fair 2.84 · @2.68
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.30
Tepatitlán41%fair 2.44 · @2.52
2.58Expected goals
1.23Leones Negros UDG xG
1.35Tepatitlán xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–110%
1–09%
1–29%
2–18%
0–08%
From our goals model: Leones Negros UDG 1.2 – 1.4 Tepatitlán expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tepatitlán to win✗
41%
2.44
2.52
Double chance
Either team to win✗
76%
1.31
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.76
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.94
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.38
1.33
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.31
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tepatitlán / FT Tepatitlán✗
23%
4.34
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
10%
9.78
–
Form
Leones Negros UDG
No recent results on record.
Tepatitlán
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Leones Negros UDG and Tepatitlán.
What is the prediction for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 72% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
On our numbers Leones Negros UDG have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tepatitlán 41%.
How many goals will there be in Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Our predicted score is Leones Negros UDG 1–1 Tepatitlán, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán?
Leones Negros UDG vs Tepatitlán (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jalisco.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
