Very strong pick · fair odds 1.24 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Monarcas to win @ 1.64 – our chance 65% vs 61% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMonarcas to win ✓65% · @1.64
Double chanceMonarcas or draw ✓87% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.60
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓81% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–0 ✗10% · fair 9.88
Monarcas vs Venados FC preview and prediction
The match
Monarcas host Venados FC in the Liga De Expansión MX on Sunday 15 February, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Estadio Morelos. Monarcas are 3rd with 26 points from 15 games (in the top four), while Venados FC sit 6th on 25 points (in the top half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.2 goals: 2.3 for Monarcas and 1.0 for Venados FC. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 60% and both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Monarcas 65%, draw 22%, Venados FC 13%.
Safer route: Monarcas or draw (87%) at 1.17.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Monarcas to win at 1.64 – 65% on our numbers against 61% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 81% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: Monarcas 2–0 Venados FC. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Monarcas65%fair 1.54 · @1.64
Draw22%fair 4.65 · @3.90
Venados FC13%fair 7.44 · @4.90
3.23Expected goals
2.26Monarcas xG
0.97Venados FC xG
61%Both score
60%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–010%
2–110%
1–09%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Monarcas 2.3 – 1.0 Venados FC expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Monarcas to win✓
65%
1.54
1.64 ▲
Double chance
Monarcas or draw✓
87%
1.16
1.17
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.64
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
1.62
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
1.50
Half-time result
Monarcas ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Monarcas / FT Monarcas✓
44%
2.29
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–0✗
10%
9.88
–
Form
Monarcas
No recent results on record.
Venados FC
No recent results on record.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Monarcas and Venados FC.
What is the prediction for Monarcas vs Venados FC?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Monarcas vs Venados FC?
On our numbers Monarcas have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Venados FC 13%.
How many goals will there be in Monarcas vs Venados FC?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 60% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Monarcas vs Venados FC?
Our predicted score is Monarcas 2–0 Venados FC, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Monarcas vs Venados FC?
Monarcas vs Venados FC (Liga De Expansión MX) kicks off on Sunday 15 February 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Morelos.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
