Value bet: Sirius to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalmo FF to win ✗40% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓61% · @1.62
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓77% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗9% · fair 11.66
Malmo FF vs Sirius preview and prediction
The match
Sirius travel to Eleda Stadium in the Allsvenskan on Thursday 23 April (18:00 WAT) to face Malmo FF. Malmo FF are 7th with 41 points from 28 games (in the top half), while Sirius sit 2nd on 58 points (in the top four). A gap of 17 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Malmo FF's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Orgryte IS 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sirius's last 5: WDWWW Most recently they beat Hammarby FF 2–0 at home. Goals have not been a problem: 2.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.8 goals: 1.4 for Malmo FF and 1.4 for Sirius. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 54%, both teams to score at 61%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malmo FF 40%, draw 22%, Sirius 37%.
Both teams to score: yes (61%) at 1.62.
Value angle: Sirius to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 77% chance at odds of 1.25. Predicted score: Malmo FF 1–1 Sirius. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malmo FF40%fair 2.48 · @2.15
Draw22%fair 4.45 · @3.60
Sirius37%fair 2.69 · @3.10
2.83Expected goals
1.45Malmo FF xG
1.38Sirius xG
61%Both score
54%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–06%
From our goals model: Malmo FF 1.4 – 1.4 Sirius expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malmo FF to win✗
40%
2.48
2.15
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
61%
1.63
1.62
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
77%
1.30
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
54%
1.86
1.77
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
68%
1.46
1.40
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malmo FF / FT Malmo FF✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
9%
11.66
–
Form
Malmo FF – last 5
DWWWW
5 Apr
@ Orgryte IS
1–1
D
26 Mar
vs Landskrona BoIS
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Halmstad
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ IF Karlstad
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Varbergs BoIS FC
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Sirius – last 5
WDWWW
13 Apr
vs Hammarby FF
2–0
W
15 Mar
vs IFK Goteborg
0–0
D
8 Mar
@ IF Elfsborg
2–1
W
1 Mar
vs Helsingborg
4–1
W
21 Feb
vs GIF Sundsvall
6–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malmo FF and Sirius.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Malmo FF vs Sirius?
On our numbers Malmo FF have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sirius 37%.
How many goals will there be in Malmo FF vs Sirius?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 54% likely and both teams score 61% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Our predicted score is Malmo FF 1–1 Sirius, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Malmo FF vs Sirius?
Malmo FF vs Sirius (Allsvenskan) kicks off on Thursday 23 April 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time) at Eleda Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
