Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.25
10/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Malmo FF to win @ 1.90 – our chance 63% vs 53% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk.
Quick tips for this match
ResultMalmo FF to win63% · @1.90
Double chanceMalmo FF or draw86% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score50% · @1.70
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals77% · @1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–019% · fair 5.29
Malmo FF vs Gais preview and prediction
The match
Malmo FF host Gais in the Allsvenskan on Sunday 12 April, with kick-off at 15:30 (WAT) at Eleda Stadion. Malmo FF are 7th with 41 points from 28 games (in the top half), while Gais sit 9th on 40 points (in the bottom half). Only 1 point separates the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Malmo FF's last 5: DWWWW Most recently they drew with Orgryte IS 1–1 away. At home they have won 3 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.4 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Gais's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Djurgardens IF 0–1 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Malmo FF arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.6 points a game against 1.5.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.6 for Malmo FF and 0.5 for Gais. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 57% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Malmo FF 63%, draw 23%, Gais 14%.
Safer route: Malmo FF or draw (86%) at 1.25.
Both teams to score: yes (50%) at 1.70.
Value angle: Malmo FF to win at 1.90 – 63% on our numbers against 53% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Malmo FF or draw – a 86% chance at odds of 1.25, above our fair price of 1.16, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Malmo FF 1–0 Gais. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Malmo FF63%fair 1.58 · @1.90
Draw23%fair 4.35 · @3.55
Gais14%fair 7.31 · @3.80
2.11Expected goals
1.57Malmo FF xG
0.55Gais xG
50%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Malmo FF 1.6 – 0.5 Gais expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Malmo FF to win
63%
1.58
1.90 ▲
Double chance
Malmo FF or draw
86%
1.16
1.25 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
50%
1.99
1.70
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
68%
1.47
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
57%
1.77
1.95 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
77%
1.30
1.36
Half-time result
Level at half-time
46%
2.16
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Malmo FF / FT Malmo FF
38%
2.62
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0
19%
5.29
–
Form
Malmo FF – last 5
DWWWW
5 Apr
@ Orgryte IS
1–1
D
26 Mar
vs Landskrona BoIS
1–0
W
8 Mar
vs Halmstad
2–1
W
1 Mar
@ IF Karlstad
4–0
W
22 Feb
vs Varbergs BoIS FC
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.4Conceded / game
40%Both scored
40%Over 2.5
Gais – last 6
LWLWLW
6 Apr
vs Djurgardens IF
0–1
L
29 Mar
vs Halmstad
2–0
W
22 Mar
@ Mjallby AIF
0–3
L
18 Mar
vs Oddevold
2–1
W
10 Mar
vs Varbergs BoIS FC
1–2
L
2 Mar
@ Sandviken
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Malmo FF and Gais.
Our pick is Malmo FF or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Malmo FF vs Gais?
On our numbers Malmo FF have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gais 14%.
How many goals will there be in Malmo FF vs Gais?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Malmo FF vs Gais?
Our predicted score is Malmo FF 1–0 Gais, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Malmo FF vs Gais?
Malmo FF vs Gais (Allsvenskan) kicks off on Sunday 12 April 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time) at Eleda Stadion.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
