Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise prediction & analysis
62%
Footrivo pick
Charlotte Independence to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.57 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.57Odds
Quick tips for this match
ResultCharlotte Independence to win ✓62% · @1.57
Double chanceCharlotte Independence or draw ✓83% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.55
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08
Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise preview and prediction
The match
Sarasota Paradise travel to American Legion Memorial Stadium in the USL League One on Sunday 16 August (00:00 WAT) to face Charlotte Independence. Charlotte Independence are 1st with 66 points from 32 games (top of the table), while Sarasota Paradise sit 11th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 26 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Charlotte Independence's last 5: LWWWL Most recently they lost to Hartford Athletic 2–4 at home. At home they have won 3 and lost 2 of their last 5. They average 1.8 scored and 2.2 conceded.
Sarasota Paradise's last 5: LLDDL Most recently they lost to One Knoxville 1–2 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 2 of their last 4. Goals have dried up – just 0.7 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Charlotte Independence arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.5 points a game against 0.8.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 3.1 goals: 2.1 for Charlotte Independence and 1.0 for Sarasota Paradise. Expect chances at both ends: over 2.5 sits at 61% and both teams to score at 62%. Recent games involving both sides have mostly gone over 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: Charlotte Independence 62%, draw 21%, Sarasota Paradise 17%.
Safer route: Charlotte Independence or draw (83%) at 1.13.
Both teams to score: yes (62%) at 1.55.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Charlotte Independence to win – a 62% chance at odds of 1.57. Predicted score: Charlotte Independence 2–1 Sarasota Paradise. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Charlotte Independence62%fair 1.61 · @1.57
Draw21%fair 4.81 · @4.10
Sarasota Paradise17%fair 5.90 · @4.50
3.13Expected goals
2.12Charlotte Independence xG
1.02Sarasota Paradise xG
62%Both score
61%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
2–110%
2–010%
1–19%
1–09%
3–17%
3–07%
From our goals model: Charlotte Independence 2.1 – 1.0 Sarasota Paradise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Charlotte Independence to win✓
62%
1.61
1.57
Double chance
Charlotte Independence or draw✓
83%
1.20
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
62%
1.61
1.55
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
82%
1.22
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
1.53
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
1.55
Half-time result
Charlotte Independence ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Charlotte Independence / FT Charlotte Independence✓
40%
2.48
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.08
–
Form
Charlotte Independence – last 6
LWWWLL
13 Aug
vs Hartford Athletic
2–4
L
9 Aug
vs Greenville Triumph
1–0
W
2 Aug
vs One Knoxville
3–1
W
26 Jul
vs Richmond Kickers
3–1
W
23 Jul
@ Spokane Velocity
0–3
L
19 Jul
vs Chattanooga Red Wolves
2–4
L
1.8Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Sarasota Paradise – last 6
LLDDLW
9 Aug
@ One Knoxville
1–2
L
12 Jul
vs Miami FC
0–5
L
9 Jul
@ Greenville Triumph
0–0
D
4 Jul
@ Richmond Kickers
0–0
D
21 Jun
@ Corpus Christi
1–4
L
14 Jun
vs Union Omaha
2–0
W
0.7Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Charlotte Independence and Sarasota Paradise.
What is the prediction for Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our pick is Charlotte Independence to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?
On our numbers Charlotte Independence have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Sarasota Paradise 17%.
How many goals will there be in Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 61% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our predicted score is Charlotte Independence 2–1 Sarasota Paradise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise?
Charlotte Independence vs Sarasota Paradise (USL League One) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 00:00 (West Africa Time) at American Legion Memorial Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
