Value bet: Sarasota Paradise to win @ 2.60 – our chance 41% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarasota Paradise to win ✓41% · @2.60
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.86
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓79% · fair 1.26
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗9% · fair 11.50
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise preview and prediction
The match
Sarasota Paradise travel to Fitzpatrick Stadium in the USL League One on Saturday 26 September (22:00 WAT) to face Portland Hearts of Pine. Portland Hearts of Pine are 14th with 34 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Sarasota Paradise sit 11th on 40 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Portland Hearts of Pine's last 5: DWWLL Most recently they drew with Chattanooga Red Wolves 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sarasota Paradise's last 5: WDDWD Most recently they beat Greenville Triumph 6–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have not been a problem: 2.3 per game.
Sarasota Paradise arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 29 March 2026, finished Sarasota Paradise 1–0 Portland Hearts of Pine.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.9 goals: 1.4 for Portland Hearts of Pine and 1.5 for Sarasota Paradise. That suggests an open game – over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score in 54% of our simulations.
Betting angles
Win chances: Portland Hearts of Pine 36%, draw 22%, Sarasota Paradise 41%.
Value angle: Sarasota Paradise to win at 2.60 – 41% on our numbers against 38% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 2.5 goals – a 56% chance at odds of 1.67. Predicted score: Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Sarasota Paradise. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Portland Hearts of Pine36%fair 2.74 · @2.25
Draw22%fair 4.49 · @3.50
Sarasota Paradise41%fair 2.42 · @2.60
2.95Expected goals
1.42Portland Hearts of Pine xG
1.53Sarasota Paradise xG
54%Both score
56%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–111%
1–29%
2–18%
0–18%
1–07%
2–26%
From our goals model: Portland Hearts of Pine 1.4 – 1.5 Sarasota Paradise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.
Who will win Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
On our numbers Portland Hearts of Pine have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sarasota Paradise 41%.
How many goals will there be in Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 56% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Our predicted score is Portland Hearts of Pine 1–2 Sarasota Paradise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise?
Portland Hearts of Pine vs Sarasota Paradise (USL League One) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Fitzpatrick Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
