USL Championship · USA · Hodges StadiumSporting JAX vs Loudoun United prediction & analysis
Both teams to score
Good pick · fair odds 1.48 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
Value bet: Sporting JAX to win @ 2.88 – our chance 38% vs 35% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Sporting JAX 1.6 – 1.7 Loudoun United expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Very little separates Sporting JAX and Loudoun United on our numbers – 38% for the home side, 41% for the visitors and 21% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.
Sporting JAX have taken 6 points from their last 6 matches (2W 0D 4L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.3 per game. Loudoun United have 2 points from their last 6 (0W 2D 4L), averaging 1.0 scored and 2.0 conceded. Sporting JAX come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 3.4 goals (1.6 for Sporting JAX, 1.7 for Loudoun United). That points to an open game – over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on this projection. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10%), 1–2 (8%), 2–1 (8%).
In their last 1 meeting, Sporting JAX have won 0, Loudoun United have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Both teams to score at a 67% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.44 is close to our fair price of 1.48. For a bigger price, Sporting JAX to win at 2.88 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Loudoun United to win ✓ | 41% | 2.43 | 2.05 |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✓ | 79% | 1.27 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 67% | 1.48 | 1.44 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 85% | 1.18 | – |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Over 2.5 goals ✓ | 65% | 1.54 | – |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✗ | 57% | 1.76 | – |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✓ | 37% | 2.69 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Loudoun United / FT Loudoun United ✗ | 24% | 4.12 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 1–2 ✗ | 8% | 11.83 | – |
Form
Sporting JAX – last 6
| 16 Sep | @ Hartford Athletic | 0–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | vs Rhode Island | 0–3 | L |
| 6 Sep | vs Lexington | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | @ Brooklyn | 1–4 | L |
| 23 Aug | @ Birmingham Legion | 3–2 | W |
| 16 Aug | vs Indy Eleven | 0–1 | L |
Loudoun United – last 6
| 20 Sep | @ Louisville City | 1–2 | L |
| 13 Sep | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sep | vs Colorado Springs | 4–5 | L |
| 30 Aug | @ El Paso Locomotive | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | vs New Mexico United | 0–0 | D |
| 16 Aug | @ Detroit City | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
| 4 Jul 2026 | Loudoun United v Sporting JAX | 2–2 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Tampa Bay Rowdies | 30 | +26 | 61 |
| 2 |  Charleston Battery | 30 | +21 | 53 |
| 3 |  Detroit City | 30 | +13 | 51 |
| 4 |  Louisville City | 30 | +8 | 47 |
| 5 |  Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 30 | +3 | 45 |
| 6 |  Hartford Athletic | 30 | +2 | 43 |
| 7 |  Rhode Island | 30 | +9 | 42 |
| 8 |  Miami FC | 30 | -10 | 36 |
| 9 |  Indy Eleven | 30 | -6 | 34 |
| 10 |  Loudoun United | 30 | -10 | 31 |
| 11 |  Birmingham Legion | 30 | -6 | 30 |
| 12 |  Brooklyn | 30 | -29 | 21 |
| 13 |  Sporting JAX | 30 | -46 | 14 |
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FC Tulsa1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United?
On our numbers Sporting JAX have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Loudoun United 41%.
How many goals will there be in Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United?
We expect about 3.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 65% likely and both teams score 67% of the time on our projection.
When is Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United?
Sporting JAX vs Loudoun United (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 26 September 2026 at 00:30 (West Africa Time) at Hodges Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.