USL Championship · USA · Cardinale StadiumMonterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic prediction & analysis
Under 3.5 goals
Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28 · Won ✓
Value bet: Sacramento Republic to win @ 1.95 – our chance 55% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
Win chances
Most likely scores
From our goals model: Monterey Bay 0.9 – 1.6 Sacramento Republic expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our analysis
Sacramento Republic shade it despite being away from home – 55% to win, against 22% for Monterey Bay.
Monterey Bay have taken 1 points from their last 6 matches (0W 1D 5L), scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.5 per game. Sacramento Republic have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. Sacramento Republic come into this in clearly the better form.
We expect around 2.6 goals (0.9 for Monterey Bay, 1.6 for Sacramento Republic). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 47%, both teams to score at 56%. Most likely scores: 0–1 (13%), 1–1 (12%), 0–2 (10%).
In their last 1 meeting, Monterey Bay have won 0, Sacramento Republic have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 2.0 goals per game.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 74% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.28 is close to our fair price of 1.36. For a bigger price, Sacramento Republic to win at 1.95 is our value angle (55% on our numbers).
Every market, with fair odds
| Market | Most likely | Chance | Fair odds | Bookmaker |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Sacramento Republic to win ✗ | 55% | 1.80 | 1.95 ▲ |
| Double chance | Either team to win ✗ | 78% | 1.29 | 1.25 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score ✓ | 56% | 1.79 | 1.75 |
| Over/under 1.5 goals | Over 1.5 goals ✓ | 72% | 1.40 | 1.33 |
| Over/under 2.5 goals | Under 2.5 goals ✓ | 53% | 1.89 | 1.77 |
| Over/under 3.5 goals | Under 3.5 goals ✓ | 74% | 1.36 | 1.28 |
| Half-time result | Level at half-time ✗ | 43% | 2.35 | – |
| Half-time / full-time | HT Sacramento Republic / FT Sacramento Republic ✗ | 33% | 3.02 | – |
| Correct score | Correct score 0–1 ✗ | 13% | 7.90 | – |
Form
Monterey Bay – last 6
| 23 Aug | @ Rhode Island | 1–3 | L |
| 16 Aug | @ Oakland Roots | 1–1 | D |
| 9 Aug | vs New Mexico United | 2–5 | L |
| 6 Aug | @ El Paso Locomotive | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | @ Lexington | 2–3 | L |
| 26 Jul | vs Orange County SC | 1–2 | L |
Sacramento Republic – last 6
| 23 Aug | vs Phoenix Rising | 2–2 | D |
| 16 Aug | vs Lexington | 1–0 | W |
| 9 Aug | @ Pittsburgh Riverhounds | 0–0 | D |
| 6 Aug | @ FC Tulsa | 0–1 | L |
| 2 Aug | vs Sporting JAX | 5–0 | W |
| 26 Jul | @ Oakland Roots | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
| 22 Mar 2026 | Sacramento Republic v Monterey Bay | 1–1 |
USL Championship table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  New Mexico United | 30 | +11 | 52 |
| 2 |  Sacramento Republic | 30 | +14 | 51 |
| 3 |  El Paso Locomotive | 30 | +10 | 50 |
| 4 |  Lexington | 30 | +18 | 48 |
| 5 |  Colorado Springs | 30 | +6 | 47 |
| 6 |  San Antonio | 30 | +2 | 45 |
| 7 |  FC Tulsa | 30 | +3 | 43 |
| 8 |  Phoenix Rising | 30 | -1 | 40 |
| 9 |  Orange County SC | 30 | -10 | 39 |
| 10 |  Oakland Roots | 30 | -1 | 38 |
| 11 |  Las Vegas Lights | 30 | -7 | 36 |
| 12 |  Monterey Bay | 30 | -20 | 24 |
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Loudoun United1Frequently asked questions
What is the prediction for Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
On our numbers Monterey Bay have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Sacramento Republic 55%.
How many goals will there be in Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
When is Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic?
Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic (USL Championship) kicks off on Sunday 30 August 2026 at 03:00 (West Africa Time) at Cardinale Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.