Double chanceTampa Bay Rowdies or draw ✗86% · @1.11
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓58% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗13% · fair 7.44
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington preview and prediction
The match
Lexington travel to Al Lang Stadium in the USL Championship on Saturday 4 July (23:00 WAT) to face Tampa Bay Rowdies. Tampa Bay Rowdies are 1st with 61 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Lexington sit 4th on 48 points (in the top four). A gap of 13 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: WLDWW Most recently they beat Brooklyn 2–0 away. At home they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.5 conceded. 4 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Lexington's last 5: DWWLW Most recently they drew with Indy Eleven 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.9 for Tampa Bay Rowdies and 0.8 for Lexington. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 52%, both teams to score at 58%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Tampa Bay Rowdies 64%, draw 22%, Lexington 14%.
Both teams to score: yes (58%) at 1.67.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 75% chance at odds of 1.22. Predicted score: Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Lexington. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Tampa Bay Rowdies64%fair 1.55 · @1.60
Draw22%fair 4.63 · @3.75
Lexington14%fair 7.10 · @4.75
2.64Expected goals
1.89Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
0.75Lexington xG
58%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–013%
2–013%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tampa Bay Rowdies 1.9 – 0.8 Lexington expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✗
64%
1.55
1.60
Double chance
Tampa Bay Rowdies or draw✗
86%
1.16
1.11
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
58%
1.73
1.67
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.22
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.92
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
69%
1.45
1.42
Half-time result
Tampa Bay Rowdies ahead at half-time✗
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tampa Bay Rowdies / FT Tampa Bay Rowdies✗
41%
2.44
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
13%
7.44
–
Form
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WLDWWW
21 Jun
@ Brooklyn
2–0
W
14 Jun
vs Hartford Athletic
0–1
L
11 Jun
vs Charleston Battery
2–2
D
7 Jun
@ Sporting JAX
2–0
W
31 May
@ Louisville City
2–0
W
24 May
vs Phoenix Rising
3–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Lexington – last 6
DWWLWL
21 Jun
vs Indy Eleven
0–0
D
14 Jun
vs San Antonio
2–0
W
31 May
@ El Paso Locomotive
4–1
W
24 May
@ Indy Eleven
1–3
L
9 May
vs Monterey Bay
3–1
W
3 May
@ Las Vegas Lights
1–2
L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tampa Bay Rowdies and Lexington.
What is the prediction for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
On our numbers Tampa Bay Rowdies have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lexington 14%.
How many goals will there be in Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Our predicted score is Tampa Bay Rowdies 2–0 Lexington, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington?
Tampa Bay Rowdies vs Lexington (USL Championship) kicks off on Saturday 4 July 2026 at 23:00 (West Africa Time) at Al Lang Stadium.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
