New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies preview and prediction
The match
New Mexico United host Tampa Bay Rowdies in the USL Championship on Thursday 21 May, with kick-off at 02:00 (WAT) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park. New Mexico United are 1st with 52 points from 30 games (top of the table), while Tampa Bay Rowdies sit 1st on 61 points (top of the table).
Form guide
New Mexico United's last 5: LWDWL Most recently they lost to Colorado Springs 0–4 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.8 conceded.
Tampa Bay Rowdies's last 5: WDWWD Most recently they beat Miami FC 4–1 away. On the road they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.8 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Tampa Bay Rowdies arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.3 points a game against 1.7.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.6 goals: 1.4 for New Mexico United and 1.3 for Tampa Bay Rowdies. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 53%, both teams to score at 60%.
Betting angles
Win chances: New Mexico United 34%, draw 26%, Tampa Bay Rowdies 40%.
Both teams to score: yes (60%) at 1.53.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Over 1.5 goals – a 76% chance at odds of 1.20. Predicted score: New Mexico United 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
New Mexico United34%fair 2.94 · @3.10
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.55
Tampa Bay Rowdies40%fair 2.49 · @2.00
2.63Expected goals
1.37New Mexico United xG
1.26Tampa Bay Rowdies xG
60%Both score
53%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: New Mexico United 1.4 – 1.3 Tampa Bay Rowdies expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Footrivo team ratings
New Mexico United
Tampa Bay Rowdies
Attack vs USL Championship average
+23%
+12%
Goals conceded vs average
-23%
-26%
Our expected goals here
1.37
1.05
Our own ratings from every USL Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tampa Bay Rowdies to win✓
40%
2.49
2.00
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.22
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
60%
1.67
1.53
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
76%
1.32
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.89
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.46
1.45
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT New Mexico United / FT New Mexico United✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.73
–
Form
New Mexico United – last 6
LWDWLW
17 May
@ Colorado Springs
0–4
L
10 May
vs Las Vegas Lights
3–1
W
7 May
vs El Paso Locomotive
2–2
D
26 Apr
vs Alta
2–1
W
12 Apr
@ Phoenix Rising
0–3
L
5 Apr
@ Orange County SC
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Tampa Bay Rowdies – last 6
WDWWDW
17 May
@ Miami FC
4–1
W
10 May
@ Rhode Island
1–1
D
3 May
vs Indy Eleven
1–0
W
26 Apr
vs Sarasota Paradise
2–0
W
12 Apr
vs Oakland Roots
2–2
D
5 Apr
@ Sporting JAX
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between New Mexico United and Tampa Bay Rowdies.
What is the prediction for New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
On our numbers New Mexico United have a 34% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Tampa Bay Rowdies 40%.
How many goals will there be in New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 53% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
Our predicted score is New Mexico United 1–1 Tampa Bay Rowdies, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies?
New Mexico United vs Tampa Bay Rowdies (USL Championship) kicks off on Thursday 21 May 2026 at 02:00 (West Africa Time) at Rio Grande Credit Union Field at Isotopes Park.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
