Liga Profesional Argentina · Argentina · Estadio 15 de Abril

Union Santa Fe

DWDLL
2–0
FT

Velez Sarsfield

DWWLD

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield prediction & analysis

75%
Footrivo pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓

8/10Rating
1.25Odds
2

Value bet: Velez Sarsfield to win @ 3.00 – our chance 38% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Quick tips for this match

ResultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗38% · @3.00
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10% · fair 9.79

Win chances

Union Santa Fe37%fair 2.73 · @2.55
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @3.00
Velez Sarsfield38%fair 2.66 · @3.00
2.52Expected goals
1.25Union Santa Fe xG
1.27Velez Sarsfield xG
55%Both score
46%Over 2.5

Most likely scores

1–113%
0–110%
1–010%
1–28%
0–08%
2–18%

From our goals model: Union Santa Fe 1.3 – 1.3 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Our analysis

Very little separates Union Santa Fe and Velez Sarsfield on our numbers – 37% for the home side, 38% for the visitors and 26% for a draw. This is a match where the price matters more than the pick.

Union Santa Fe have taken 5 points from their last 6 matches (1W 2D 3L), scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.7 per game. Velez Sarsfield have 11 points from their last 6 (3W 2D 1L), averaging 2.2 scored and 1.3 conceded. Velez Sarsfield come into this in clearly the better form.

We expect around 2.5 goals (1.3 for Union Santa Fe, 1.3 for Velez Sarsfield). That is close to an average game for goals: over 2.5 at 46%, both teams to score at 55%. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13%), 0–1 (10%), 1–0 (10%).

In their last 1 meeting, Union Santa Fe have won 0, Velez Sarsfield have won 0 and 1 ended level, with an average of 4.0 goals per game.

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals at a 75% chance – the bookmaker price of 1.25 is close to our fair price of 1.33. For a bigger price, Velez Sarsfield to win at 3.00 is our value angle (38% on our numbers).

Every market, with fair odds

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultVelez Sarsfield to win ✗38%2.663.00 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74%1.351.36
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗55%1.811.80
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓71%1.401.33
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓54%1.841.73
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.331.25
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.28–
Half-time / full-timeHT Velez Sarsfield / FT Velez Sarsfield ✗21%4.71–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗10%9.79–

Form

Union Santa Fe – last 6

DWDLLL
1 Nov@ Newells Old Boys1–1D
26 Octvs Estudiantes L.P.3–1W
20 Oct@ Deportivo Riestra1–1D
10 Octvs Defensa Y Justicia0–2L
3 Oct@ Boca Juniors0–3L
19 Sepvs Independiente1–2L
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Velez Sarsfield – last 6

DWWLDW
31 Octvs San Lorenzo2–2D
26 Oct@ Central Cordoba de Santiago5–0W
18 Octvs Gimnasia M.1–0W
12 Oct@ Lanus0–2L
5 Octvs Platense2–2D
21 Sepvs Tigre3–2W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

27 Apr 2026Velez Sarsfield v Union Santa Fe2–2

More Liga Profesional Argentina predictions

FT Aldosivi0 River Plate2 82369 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.28 ✓ FT Argentinos JRS0 Huracan2 632117 1XArgentinos JRS or draw 83%@1.22 ✗ FT Banfield2 Atletico Tucuman2 412534 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.23 ✗ FT Barracas Central2 Racing Club0 392635 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 65%@1.44 ✓ FT Boca Juniors1 Defensa Y Justicia0 69238 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 70%@1.40 ✓ FT Central Cordoba de Santiago1 Lanus1 142561 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.22 ✓ FT Gimnasia M.1 Independ. Rivadavia1 372537 U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓ FT Independiente2 Deportivo Riestra1 592417 U2.5Under 2.5 goals 66%@1.50 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.

Who will win Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

On our numbers Union Santa Fe have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Velez Sarsfield 38%.

How many goals will there be in Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 46% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.

When is Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield?

Union Santa Fe vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 8 November 2026 at 22:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio 15 de Abril.

Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.