Value bet: Newells Old Boys to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultNewells Old Boys to win ✗37% · @3.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✗73% · @1.44
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓51% · @1.60
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓68% · fair 1.47
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗14% · fair 7.16
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees San Lorenzo take on Newells Old Boys on Saturday 24 October, kicking off at 23:15 (WAT) at Estadio Pedro Bidegain. San Lorenzo are 18th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Newells Old Boys sit 22nd on 38 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: WWLLD Most recently they beat Estudiantes L.P. 2–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Newells Old Boys's last 5: WLDWD Most recently they beat Central Cordoba de Santiago 2–1 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 1.0 for San Lorenzo and 1.0 for Newells Old Boys. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 68% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 35%, draw 27%, Newells Old Boys 37%.
Both teams to score: no (51%) at 1.60.
Value angle: Newells Old Boys to win at 3.10 – 37% on our numbers against 32% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Not both teams to score – a 51% chance at odds of 1.60. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 0–1 Newells Old Boys. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo35%fair 2.84 · @2.50
Draw27%fair 3.67 · @2.70
Newells Old Boys37%fair 2.67 · @3.10
1.98Expected goals
0.97San Lorenzo xG
1.01Newells Old Boys xG
49%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–114%
0–014%
1–114%
1–013%
0–27%
1–27%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 1.0 – 1.0 Newells Old Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Newells Old Boys to win✗
37%
2.67
3.10 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
73%
1.38
1.44
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.60
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
59%
1.70
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
68%
1.47
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
50%
1.99
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✓
22%
4.54
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
14%
7.16
–
Form
San Lorenzo – last 6
WWLLDW
18 Oct
@ Estudiantes L.P.
2–1
W
11 Oct
vs Deportivo Riestra
1–0
W
3 Oct
@ Defensa Y Justicia
0–3
L
20 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ Independiente
1–1
D
5 Sep
vs Talleres Cordoba
1–0
W
0.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Newells Old Boys – last 6
WLDWDD
19 Oct
vs Central Cordoba de Santiago
2–1
W
12 Oct
@ Gimnasia M.
0–1
L
3 Oct
vs Lanus
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Platense
1–0
W
11 Sep
vs Velez Sarsfield
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Rosario Central
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between San Lorenzo and Newells Old Boys.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys?
Our pick is Not both teams to score with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.60.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Newells Old Boys 37%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 49% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 0–1 Newells Old Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys?
San Lorenzo vs Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Pedro Bidegain.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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