Value bet: Velez Sarsfield to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultLanus to win ✓44% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗15% · fair 6.84
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield preview and prediction
The match
Velez Sarsfield travel to Estadio Ciudad de Lanus in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 12 October (20:00 WAT) to face Lanus. Lanus are 9th with 50 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Velez Sarsfield sit 6th on 56 points (in the top half).
Form guide
Lanus's last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Newells Old Boys 0–0 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.2 scored and 0.5 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Velez Sarsfield's last 5: DWDWD Most recently they drew with Platense 2–2 at home. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.1 goals: 1.2 for Lanus and 0.9 for Velez Sarsfield. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 66% likely.
Value angle: Velez Sarsfield to win at 3.50 – 32% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.89, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Lanus 1–1 Velez Sarsfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Lanus44%fair 2.25 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.18 · @2.88
Velez Sarsfield32%fair 3.16 · @3.50
2.07Expected goals
1.16Lanus xG
0.91Velez Sarsfield xG
53%Both score
34%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–015%
1–113%
0–013%
0–112%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Lanus 1.2 – 0.9 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Lanus to win✓
44%
2.25
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.89
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.63
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
84%
1.18
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Lanus / FT Lanus✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
15%
6.84
–
Form
Lanus – last 6
DWWWLD
3 Oct
@ Newells Old Boys
0–0
D
22 Sep
vs Estudiantes L.P.
2–1
W
14 Sep
@ Deportivo Riestra
3–0
W
6 Sep
vs Defensa Y Justicia
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Boca Juniors
0–1
L
25 Aug
vs Argentinos JRS
1–1
D
1.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Velez Sarsfield – last 6
DWDWDD
5 Oct
vs Platense
2–2
D
21 Sep
vs Tigre
3–2
W
11 Sep
@ Newells Old Boys
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Estudiantes L.P.
1–0
W
3 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
0–0
D
29 Aug
@ Deportivo Riestra
1–1
D
1.3Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Lanus and Velez Sarsfield.
What is the prediction for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
On our numbers Lanus have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Velez Sarsfield 32%.
How many goals will there be in Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 34% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our predicted score is Lanus 1–1 Velez Sarsfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield?
Lanus vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Ciudad de Lanus.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
