Value bet: Newells Old Boys to win @ 3.40 – our chance 34% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultGimnasia M. to win ✓42% · @2.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.40
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.33
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys preview and prediction
The match
Newells Old Boys travel to Víctor Legrotaglie in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Monday 12 October (22:30 WAT) to face Gimnasia M.. Gimnasia M. are 17th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Newells Old Boys sit 22nd on 38 points (in the bottom half). Only 3 points separate the two sides, so there is plenty riding on it.
Form guide
Gimnasia M.'s last 5: LDLDW Most recently they lost to Estudiantes L.P. 0–3 away. They average 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
Newells Old Boys's last 5: DWDDD Most recently they drew with Lanus 0–0 at home. On the road they have won 1 and lost 0 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.8 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.2 for Gimnasia M. and 1.1 for Newells Old Boys. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 40%, both teams to score at 53%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Gimnasia M. 42%, draw 24%, Newells Old Boys 34%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Value angle: Newells Old Boys to win at 3.40 – 34% on our numbers against 29% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.87, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Gimnasia M. 1–1 Newells Old Boys. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Gimnasia M.42%fair 2.36 · @2.20
Draw24%fair 4.21 · @2.90
Newells Old Boys34%fair 2.96 · @3.40
2.28Expected goals
1.23Gimnasia M. xG
1.05Newells Old Boys xG
53%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–013%
0–111%
0–010%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Gimnasia M. 1.2 – 1.1 Newells Old Boys expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Gimnasia M. to win✓
42%
2.36
2.20
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.31
1.40 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.87
2.10 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.50
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
80%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gimnasia M. / FT Gimnasia M.✗
23%
4.35
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.33
–
Form
Gimnasia M. – last 6
LDLDWW
5 Oct
@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–3
L
19 Sep
vs Deportivo Riestra
0–0
D
11 Sep
@ Defensa Y Justicia
0–2
L
5 Sep
vs Boca Juniors
2–2
D
30 Aug
@ Independiente
3–0
W
22 Aug
@ Gimnasia L.P.
3–2
W
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Newells Old Boys – last 6
DWDDDW
3 Oct
vs Lanus
0–0
D
20 Sep
@ Platense
1–0
W
11 Sep
vs Velez Sarsfield
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Rosario Central
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Estudiantes L.P.
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Banfield
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gimnasia M. and Newells Old Boys.
What is the prediction for Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys?
On our numbers Gimnasia M. have a 42% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Newells Old Boys 34%.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys?
Our predicted score is Gimnasia M. 1–1 Newells Old Boys, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys?
Gimnasia M. vs Newells Old Boys (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Monday 12 October 2026 at 22:30 (West Africa Time) at Víctor Legrotaglie.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
