Value bet: Sarmiento Junin to win @ 2.90 – our chance 39% vs 34% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Quick tips for this match
ResultSarmiento Junin to win ✓39% · @2.90
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @2.05
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.21
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin preview and prediction
The match
Aldosivi host Sarmiento Junin in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday 9 October, with kick-off at 18:30 (WAT) at Estadio Jose Maria Minella. Aldosivi are 29th with 19 points from 32 games (in the bottom three), while Sarmiento Junin sit 19th on 40 points (in the bottom half). A gap of 21 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Aldosivi's last 5: LWLWL Most recently they lost to Huracan 0–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.7 conceded.
Sarmiento Junin's last 5: LDWLW Most recently they lost to Racing Club 1–3 away. On the road they have won 1 and lost 2 of their last 3. They average 1.5 scored and 1.3 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Sarmiento Junin arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 1.7 points a game against 1.0.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.3 goals: 1.1 for Aldosivi and 1.2 for Sarmiento Junin. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 39%, both teams to score at 52%.
Value angle: Sarmiento Junin to win at 2.90 – 39% on our numbers against 34% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.05, above our fair price of 1.94, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Aldosivi 1–1 Sarmiento Junin. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Aldosivi35%fair 2.84 · @2.50
Draw26%fair 3.88 · @2.90
Sarmiento Junin39%fair 2.57 · @2.90
2.26Expected goals
1.09Aldosivi xG
1.17Sarmiento Junin xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–010%
1–28%
2–17%
From our goals model: Aldosivi 1.1 – 1.2 Sarmiento Junin expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Every market, with fair odds
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sarmiento Junin to win✓
39%
2.57
2.90 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.94
2.05 ▲
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sarmiento Junin / FT Sarmiento Junin✗
21%
4.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 0–1✗
12%
8.21
–
Form
Aldosivi – last 6
LWLWLL
4 Oct
@ Huracan
0–1
L
21 Sep
vs Atletico Tucuman
1–0
W
12 Sep
@ Independ. Rivadavia
3–4
L
5 Sep
vs Banfield
3–1
W
30 Aug
@ Argentinos JRS
1–2
L
26 Aug
vs Independ. Rivadavia
0–2
L
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Sarmiento Junin – last 6
LDWLWW
19 Sep
@ Racing Club
1–3
L
13 Sep
vs Belgrano Cordoba
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto
2–0
W
28 Aug
@ Union Santa Fe
1–4
L
23 Aug
vs Estudiantes L.P.
2–0
W
16 Aug
vs Huracan
2–0
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Aldosivi and Sarmiento Junin.
What is the prediction for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.05.
Who will win Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
On our numbers Aldosivi have a 35% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Sarmiento Junin 39%.
How many goals will there be in Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
Our predicted score is Aldosivi 1–1 Sarmiento Junin, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin?
Aldosivi vs Sarmiento Junin (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Friday 9 October 2026 at 18:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Jose Maria Minella.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Instituto Cordoba2
Boca Juniors2