Value bet: San Lorenzo to win @ 3.80 – our chance 30% vs 26% implied by the price (edge +13%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultBoca Juniors to win ✓47% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗52% · @2.10
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓69% · fair 1.45
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗16% · fair 6.21
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors preview and prediction
The match
Boca Juniors travel to Pedro Bidegain in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Sunday 20 September (18:45 WAT) to face San Lorenzo. San Lorenzo are 18th with 41 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Boca Juniors sit 1st on 63 points (top of the table). A gap of 22 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
San Lorenzo's last 5: DWLDW Most recently they drew with Independiente 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. Goals have dried up – just 0.5 per game. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boca Juniors's last 5: DWWDD Most recently they drew with Sao Paulo 1–1 away. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 0.7 conceded. 3 clean sheets in that run show a solid defence.
Boca Juniors arrive in clearly the better form, averaging 2.0 points a game against 1.3.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 11 March 2026, finished Boca Juniors 1–1 San Lorenzo.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.0 goals: 0.8 for San Lorenzo and 1.1 for Boca Juniors. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 69% likely. Their recent games have mostly stayed under 2.5.
Betting angles
Win chances: San Lorenzo 30%, draw 23%, Boca Juniors 47%.
Both teams to score: yes (52%) at 2.10.
Value angle: San Lorenzo to win at 3.80 – 30% on our numbers against 26% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 52% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.91, so there is value in it. Predicted score: San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca Juniors. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
San Lorenzo30%fair 3.37 · @3.80
Draw23%fair 4.26 · @3.00
Boca Juniors47%fair 2.13 · @2.05
1.96Expected goals
0.82San Lorenzo xG
1.14Boca Juniors xG
52%Both score
31%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
0–116%
0–014%
1–113%
1–012%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: San Lorenzo 0.8 – 1.1 Boca Juniors expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
On our numbers San Lorenzo have a 30% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Boca Juniors 47%.
How many goals will there be in San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 31% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
Our predicted score is San Lorenzo 1–1 Boca Juniors, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors?
San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Sunday 20 September 2026 at 18:45 (West Africa Time) at Pedro Bidegain.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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