Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield preview and prediction
The match
Velez Sarsfield travel to Estadio Marcelo Bielsa in the Liga Profesional Argentina on Friday 11 September (21:00 WAT) to face Newells Old Boys. Newells Old Boys are 22nd with 38 points from 32 games (in the bottom half), while Velez Sarsfield sit 6th on 56 points (in the top half). A gap of 18 points shows the difference in quality this season.
Form guide
Newells Old Boys's last 5: DDWWL Most recently they drew with Rosario Central 1–1 away. At home they have won 2 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.3 scored and 1.0 conceded.
Velez Sarsfield's last 5: WDDDD Most recently they beat Estudiantes L.P. 1–0 at home. On the road they have won 0 and lost 0 of their last 3. They average 1.0 scored and 0.8 conceded.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Velez Sarsfield 1–1 Newells Old Boys.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.2 goals: 1.1 for Newells Old Boys and 1.1 for Velez Sarsfield. That points to a tight game – under 2.5 goals is 63% likely.
Betting angles
Win chances: Newells Old Boys 36%, draw 26%, Velez Sarsfield 38%.
Both teams to score: yes (53%) at 2.10.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 53% chance at odds of 2.10, above our fair price of 1.88, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Newells Old Boys 1–1 Velez Sarsfield. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Newells Old Boys36%fair 2.81 · @2.80
Draw26%fair 3.82 · @2.80
Velez Sarsfield38%fair 2.61 · @2.62
2.16Expected goals
1.05Newells Old Boys xG
1.11Velez Sarsfield xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
0–113%
1–012%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Newells Old Boys 1.1 – 1.1 Velez Sarsfield expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
On our numbers Newells Old Boys have a 36% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Velez Sarsfield 38%.
How many goals will there be in Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
Our predicted score is Newells Old Boys 1–1 Velez Sarsfield, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield?
Newells Old Boys vs Velez Sarsfield (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Marcelo Bielsa.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
