Value bet: Gimnasia M. to win @ 3.60 – our chance 33% vs 28% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Quick tips for this match
ResultDefensa Y Justicia to win ✓44% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · fair 1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.33
Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M. preview and prediction
The match
The Liga Profesional Argentina sees Defensa Y Justicia take on Gimnasia M. on Friday 11 September, kicking off at 23:15 (WAT) at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello. Defensa Y Justicia are 14th with 47 points from 32 games (in the top half), while Gimnasia M. sit 17th on 41 points (in the bottom half).
Form guide
Defensa Y Justicia's last 5: LWWDW Most recently they lost to Lanus 0–1 away. They average 1.0 scored and 1.2 conceded.
Gimnasia M.'s last 5: DWWWL Most recently they drew with Boca Juniors 2–2 at home. On the road they have won 2 and lost 1 of their last 3. They are scoring freely – 2.2 goals a game.
Head to head
The last meeting, on 4 May 2026, finished Gimnasia M. 2–1 Defensa Y Justicia.
Goals outlook
Our model expects about 2.4 goals: 1.3 for Defensa Y Justicia and 1.1 for Gimnasia M.. That is close to an average game: over 2.5 at 43%, both teams to score at 56%.
Betting angles
Win chances: Defensa Y Justicia 44%, draw 23%, Gimnasia M. 33%.
Both teams to score: yes (56%) at 2.00.
Value angle: Gimnasia M. to win at 3.60 – 33% on our numbers against 28% implied by the price.
Our prediction
Our pre-match pick was Both teams to score – a 56% chance at odds of 2.00, above our fair price of 1.78, so there is value in it. Predicted score: Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Gimnasia M.. Bets settle on the 90-minute score. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, bet responsibly.
Win chances
Defensa Y Justicia44%fair 2.30 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.29 · @3.00
Gimnasia M.33%fair 3.02 · @3.60
2.38Expected goals
1.30Defensa Y Justicia xG
1.08Gimnasia M. xG
56%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Most likely scores
1–113%
1–012%
0–110%
0–09%
2–18%
2–08%
From our goals model: Defensa Y Justicia 1.3 – 1.1 Gimnasia M. expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M.?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 56% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M.?
On our numbers Defensa Y Justicia have a 44% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Gimnasia M. 33%.
How many goals will there be in Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M.?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M.?
Our predicted score is Defensa Y Justicia 1–1 Gimnasia M., the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M.?
Defensa Y Justicia vs Gimnasia M. (Liga Profesional Argentina) kicks off on Friday 11 September 2026 at 23:15 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello.
Analysis by the Footrivo model, blended with bookmaker prices. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
